14:30 Newton Abbot

Happy 80th Birthday John Lane Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase

3m2f · Chase · Class 5 · Good · 6 runners · £5,017 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Limerick Leader

No. 3 · score 67.1 · +2.8 clear of next best · best 13/2·7.40

Best value vs consensus

Great d'Ange

5.4·5.40 Smarkets · +3% vs fair (consensus 5.25)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Great d'AngeDiffers from our pick

Great d'Ange heads this six-runner Class 5 chase at Newton Abbot on good ground, rated narrowly ahead of Limerick Leader and a handful of pounds clear of Sir Carnegie, and that edge in class looks meaningful over this extended trip of twenty-six furlongs where stamina and jumping accuracy will count. The chief dangers come from Limerick Leader, who has the form to make this competitive, Sir Carnegie, who cannot be discounted at the weights, and Honey I'm Good, who may improve for the step up in distance. Confidence is medium rather than absolute, but Great d'Ange's superior rating and presumed suitability to this test of endurance make a compelling case. The selection is Great d'Ange.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Limerick Leader

Freddie Keighley · Nick Scholfield · 9yo

Top-rated of 6

score 67.1 · +2.8 clear of next best (64.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
40d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
67strong
Last 6: 2-2-2-3-3
Ratings50% weight
65strong
OR 98
Trainer20% weight
63small sample (n=4)
Nick Scholfield: 1/4 winners last 14d (25%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard

MarketBest price 7.40 (Smarkets) · 5th in the market of 6.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(2)
2Great d'Ange 3Limerick Leader
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
1Sir Carnegie 5Honey I'm Good
Unknown(2)
4My Girl Katie 6Hardy Buck

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	Limerick LeaderPick J: Freddie Keighley · T: Nick Scholfield · draw 0 9yo · G · bbClass dropOnly ride	22233	11-10	98	—	—	67.1	4/1·5.25	7.4·7.40 Smarkets · +41% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Smarkets7.4·7.40SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Bet36511/2·6.50 Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80 Midnite4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 BresBet10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Bet Victor3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00
1	Sir Carnegie J: Shane Fenelon · T: Mickey Bowen · draw 0 · combo 4/18 (22%) 6yo · G · bbClass dropGoing 1/3Only ride	23116	12-00	102	—	—	64.3	11/2·6.67	6·6.00 Smarkets · -10% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Smarkets6·6.00Midnite9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 BresBet9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00
4	My Girl Katie J: Alix Balfe(7) · T: Grace Harris · draw 0 9yo · M · bC&DOnly rideOnly runner	12131	11-04	92	—	—	63.5	3/1·3.94	5/2·3.50 Betano · -11% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betano5/2·3.50 William Hill5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 Bet Victor5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 Paddy Power5/2·3.50 Betfair Exchange3.4·3.40Smarkets3.3·3.30Bet3659/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25Midnite9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.25
5	Honey I'm Good J: Rian Corcoran · T: Mrs C Williams · draw 0 10yo · M · btOnly runner	6327	10-09	83	—	—	54.9	15/2·8.48	6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet · -17% vs fair All 27 books ▾ LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Quinn Bet6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60 Midnite11/2·6.50Smarkets6.2·6.20SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00
2	Great d'Ange J: Tom Broughton · T: Alexander Gibbons · draw 0 10yo · G · btvOnly rideOnly runner	PP922	11-12	100	—	—	51.4	4/1·5.25	5.4·5.40 Smarkets · +3% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Smarkets5.4·5.40Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 Midnite7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 Betano10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 Bet36510/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33William Hill10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 BresBet3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00
6	Hardy Buck J: Luke Scott · T: Max Comley · draw 0 8yo · G · btpOnly rideOnly runner	172P6	10-02	74	—	—	39.4	9/1·10.30	9/1·10.00 Bet365 · -3% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Bet3659/1·10.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00Smarkets8.6·8.60LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50BetWright15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20 Unibet7/1·8.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27 bookmakers per horse with the 21% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Happy 80th Birthday John Lane Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase?

The Happy 80th Birthday John Lane Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase is off at 14:30 on 22 August 2026 at Newton Abbot (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:30 Newton Abbot?

3m2f, Class 5, Chase, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:30 Newton Abbot?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:30 Newton Abbot?

The AI top-rated runner is Limerick Leader (score 67.1, best price 7.40). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:30 Newton Abbot?

The market favourite is My Girl Katie at a best price of 3.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Limerick Leader.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org