Who won the 15:00 Carlisle on 27 August 2026?
Bincimbal (IRE) won the 15:00 Carlisle at SP 3.25. Ridden by Callum Rodriguez. Trained by Harry Charlton.
15:00 Carlisle
Colin Parker Raceday 1st Nov Nursery Handicap Stakes
1m · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 5 runners · £5,496 · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stBincimbal (IRE)Callum Rodriguez·Harry Charlton9/4·3.25SP
- 2ndEmerald Bay (IRE)P J McDonald·George Scott·beaten 2.5 lengths6/1·7.00SP
- 3rdTen Clarets (IRE)Pierre-Louis Jamin·K. R. Burke·beaten .75 lengths2/1F·3.00SP
Race time
1m 39.85s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Bincimbal (IRE))
“Held up early - improved to move into second with 3f left - hit the front inside the final furlong - stayed on strongly to score clear”
AI top-rated Kanzi (score 62.4) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Ten Clarets
Ten Clarets heads this small Class 4 field at Carlisle on a rating seven pounds clear of the next best, Emerald Bay, and carries that edge into today's eight-furlong contest on good ground with reasonable claims of translating it into a result. Emerald Bay is the most obvious danger alongside the joint-rated pair Bincimbal and Kanzi, who cannot be entirely dismissed, so Ten Clarets will need to be on song to fend off those three. On balance, the rating advantage is meaningful enough to make the case, and Ten Clarets is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Kanzi
Callum Shepherd · Charlie Johnston · 2yo
Top-rated of 5
score 62.4 · +2.9 clear of next best (59.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong19d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight93very strongLast 6: 2-1
- Ratings50% weight53averageOR 79 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight38below averageCharlie Johnston: 6/39 winners last 14d (15%)
MarketBest price 190.00 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 5.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 1m
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–2)
IV 1.00
Mid (3–4)
IV 0.83
High (5–5)
IV 1.16
Today: Bincimbal (draw 5) gets the bias; Kanzi (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Harry Charlton · draw 5 2yo · C · br | 341 | 75 | 59.5 | 9/4·3.25 SP |
| 2 | 4 | J: P J McDonald · T: George Scott · draw 2 2yo · G · bbFT B | 076113 | 67 | 49.2 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke · draw 1 2yo · G · b | 423 | 79 | 56.0 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Katie Scott · draw 3 2yo · F · ch | 8537 | 60 | 44.7 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 4 2yo · F · b | 21 | 79 | 62.4 | 5/2·3.50 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:00 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Kanzi) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 15:00 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Bincimbal (IRE) (3.25), 2. Emerald Bay (IRE) (7.00), 3. Ten Clarets (IRE) (3.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:00 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 39.85s.
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