Who won the 16:00 Carlisle on 27 August 2026?
Royal Duke (GB) won the 16:00 Carlisle at SP 13.00. Ridden by Rhys Elliott. Trained by R Mike Smith.
16:00 Carlisle
Ladies Night 2027 On Sale Now Handicap Stakes
5f · Flat · Class 6 · Good · 11 runners · £3,402 · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stRoyal Duke (GB)Rhys Elliott·R Mike Smith12/1·13.00SP
- 2ndCotai Starlight (IRE)Kevin Stott·Katie Scott·beaten 0.2 lengths6/1·7.00SP
- 3rdNever Dark (GB)Alex Jary·Iain Jardine·beaten 1.5 lengths6/1·7.00SP
Race time
1m 0.04s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Royal Duke (GB))
“Held up at the back and lost touch before halfway - driven up into contention inside the last furlong and finishing hard - got there right on the line”
AI top-rated Harry Mole (score 49.2) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Impressor
Impressor heads this thirteen-runner sprint at Carlisle on good ground with a rating narrowly ahead of the chasing pack, holding a five-pound edge over Keep The Gold and six pounds over Never Dark and Harry Mole, though in a field this competitive over five furlongs that margin offers no guarantees. Keep The Gold and the jointly-rated Never Dark and Harry Mole will press hard throughout and any one of them could make life difficult if Impressor fails to reproduce his best. The confidence here is modest, and punters should be aware this is a tight, open affair at the bottom end of the conditions scale. On ratings alone, however, Impressor is the one to be with.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Harry Mole
Dougie Costello · Steph Hollinshead · 4yo
Top-rated of 13
score 49.2 · +2.3 clear of next best (46.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong19d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight60averageLast 6: 0-5-2-2-3-3
- Trainer20% weight43small sample (n=6)Steph Hollinshead: 1/6 winners last 14d (17%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Ratings50% weight37below averageOR 56
MarketBest price 21.00 (LiveScore Bet) · 9th in the market of 13.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 5f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 0.99
Mid (6–10)
IV 1.10
High (11–14)
IV 0.91
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 99 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: R Mike Smith · draw 4 5yo · G · btp | 756507 | 45 | 35.3 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 2 | 7 | J: Kevin Stott · T: Katie Scott · draw 5 3yo · F · ch | 358145 | 58 | 46.9 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 3 | 9 | J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 13 9yo · G · b | 66726 | 55 | 37.7 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 4 | 6 | J: Dougie Costello · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 052233 | 56 | 49.2 | 7/2F·4.50 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho · draw 2 5yo · G · bv | 450165 | 59 | 39.6 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 6 | 13 | J: P J McDonald · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 11 7yo · M · grtp | 050557 | 49 | 31.3 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 7 | 11 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 10 3yo · F · b | 93194 | 56 | 40.2 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 8 | 10 | J: Barry McHugh · T: John Wainwright · draw 9 5yo · G · bb | 72113 | 54 | 42.1 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 9 | 12 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 14 4yo · G · bp | 25497 | 54 | 42.5 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 10 | 5 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Tina Jackson · draw 7 5yo · M · b | 747761 | 57 | 37.7 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 11 | 4 | J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 1 3yo · G · grFirst after wind op | 00709 | 60 | 39.0 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin · draw 12 9yo · G · bp | 063608 | 60 | 38.9 | — |
| — | — | J: Faye McManoman · T: Brian Rothwell · draw 6 6yo · M · btp | 081894 | 55 | 31.6 | — |
| — | — | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 8 4yo · G · btpFirst after wind op | 57900 | 59 | 29.2 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:00 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Harry Mole) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 16:00 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Royal Duke (GB) (13.00), 2. Cotai Starlight (IRE) (7.00), 3. Never Dark (GB) (7.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:00 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 0.04s.
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