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RacingAlpha

16:45 Newcastle (AW)

Quinnbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes

2m½f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 4 runners · £3,768 · Saturday, 5 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 1/4F·1.25
  1. 1st
    Niffler (GER)AI top pick · 54.6
    Poppy Scott·Sir Mark Prescott Bt
    1/4F·1.25
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Ada Rose (GB)
    Shane Gray·Kevin Philippart De Foy·beaten 1 length
    9/2·5.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Lilykoy (GB)
    Alex Jary·Dylan Cunha·beaten 7 lengths
    9/1·10.00
    SP
Race time
3m 37.72s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Niffler (GER))

“Set the pace early - surrendered top spot and slipped back before halfway - dropped away entering the last quarter mile - rallied and drifted left approaching the final furlong - burst clear close home to score”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Niffler

Niffler holds a small edge on ratings over Ada Rose and the remainder of this modest Class 6 staying contest at Newcastle, and over sixteen furlongs on the all-weather the selection's stamina credentials give connections every reason for optimism. Ada Rose is the most credible danger on a rating four pounds inferior, while Star Of Markinch and Lilykoy trail considerably further behind and would need career-best efforts to land a blow. This looks a straightforward opportunity for Niffler to make his superiority count, and he is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Niffler

Poppy Scott(7) · Sir Mark Prescott Bt · 3yo

Top-rated of 4
score 54.6 · +5.0 clear of next best (49.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    80very strong
    Sir Mark Prescott Bt: 6/19 winners last 14d (32%)
  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    10d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Form20% weight
    61average
    Last 6: 8-9-0-1-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    39below average
    OR 58 — highest combined rating in the field
MarketBest price 1.32 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 2m½f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–2)
IV 1.06
Mid (3–3)
IV 0.90
High (4–4)
IV 1.02

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 150 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
11
Niffler
J: Poppy Scott(7) · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt · draw 2
3yo · G · ch
89011
5854.6
1/4F·1.25
SP
22
Ada Rose
J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 1
3yo · F · b
739162
5749.7
9/2·5.50
SP
34
Lilykoy
J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 3
3yo · F · bb
56834
4537.0
9/1·10.00
SP
43
Star Of Markinch
J: Greg Fairley · T: Gary Rutherford · draw 4
10yo · M · b
044454
4529.9
50/1·51.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:45 Newcastle (AW) on 5 September 2026?

Niffler (GER) won the 16:45 Newcastle (AW) at SP 1.25. Ridden by Poppy Scott. Trained by Sir Mark Prescott Bt.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 Newcastle (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Niffler, won the race (AI score 54.6).

What were the placings in the 16:45 Newcastle (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Niffler (GER) (1.25), 2. Ada Rose (GB) (5.50), 3. Lilykoy (GB) (10.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:45 Newcastle (AW)?

The winning time was 3m 37.72s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org