Who won the 15:07 Epsom on 10 September 2026?
Carnival Day (IRE) won the 15:07 Epsom at SP 3.50. Ridden by Pat Cosgrave. Trained by Jim Boyle.
15:07 Epsom
Chigwell Group - The Trade's Front Runner Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 9 runners · £4,449 · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stCarnival Day (IRE)Pat Cosgrave·Jim Boyle5/2F·3.50SP
- 2ndBeach Point (IRE)AI top pick · 56.5Hector Crouch·William Knight·beaten 0.05 lengths4/1·5.00SP
- 3rdPatrol (IRE)Jack Callan·Dylan Cunha·beaten 1 length7/2·4.50SP
Race time
2m 10.46s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Carnival Day (IRE))
“Settled midway - slipped back through field around halfway - urged forward to improve position from 3f out - drifted right on nearing front group 2f out - locked in battle up front inside final furlong - got up close home to prevail”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Patrol
Patrol heads this ten-runner Class 5 contest at Epsom on good-to-soft ground, rated narrowly ahead of Carnival Day and three pounds clear of Moonrunner, and the selection's profile over a mile and a quarter gives reason to think the trip will suit here. Carnival Day and Moonrunner are the most credible threats and will need watching throughout, while Skibo, seven pounds below our selection in the ratings, could outrun expectations if conditions continue to ease. The form edge is modest rather than commanding, but Patrol holds the clearest case on known merit and is the call here.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Beach Point
Hector Crouch · William Knight · 5yo
Top-rated of 9
score 56.5 · +6.0 clear of next best (50.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong13d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Trainer20% weight68strongWilliam Knight: 4/15 winners last 14d (27%)
- Form20% weight56averageLast 6: 3-4-8-4-4-1
- Ratings50% weight49below averageOR 74
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Epsom 1m2f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.14).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.99
Mid (5–7)
IV 0.87
High (8–10)
IV 1.14
Today: Beach Point (draw 8) and Bobacious (draw 9) get the bias; Moonrunner (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 119 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Jim Boyle · draw 1 5yo · G · b | 37453 | 74 | 44.3 | 5/2F·3.50 SP |
| 2 | 4 | J: Hector Crouch · T: William Knight · draw 8 5yo · G · brp | 348441 | 74 | 56.5 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 3 | 2 | J: Jack Callan · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 3 4yo · G · bv | 243632 | 74 | 47.1 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 7 4yo · G · b | 43254 | 75 | 48.4 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 5 | 8 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: James Owen · draw 5 5yo · G · bht | 131375 | 67 | 42.0 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 6 | 9 | J: Liam Wright(3) · T: Mark Hoad · draw 9 6yo · G · b | 346517 | 65 | 50.4 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 7 | 5 | J: Tyler Heard · T: Barry Brennan · draw 2 4yo · G · b | 72378 | 72 | 50.1 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque · draw 10 5yo · M · b | 14806 | 68 | 47.9 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 9 | 10 | J: George Wood · T: Adrian Wintle · draw 4 7yo · M · bp | 635416 | 64 | 42.6 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| — | — | J: George Bass · T: Denis Coakley · draw 6 4yo · G · b | 15926 | 72 | 41.9 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:07 Epsom?
No — the AI top pick (Beach Point) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 15:07 Epsom?
Top finishers: 1. Carnival Day (IRE) (3.50), 2. Beach Point (IRE) (5.00), 3. Patrol (IRE) (4.50).
What was the winning time for the 15:07 Epsom?
The winning time was 2m 10.46s.
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