13:38 Lingfield (AW)

Alan Rae Smith Errant Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

1m4f · Flat · Class 3 · Standard · 5 runners · £6,480 · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 1/9F·1.11

1st
Affettuoso (GB)AI top pick · 45.5
Ray Dawson·Roger Varian
1/9F·1.11
SP
2nd
Astrid (FR)
Connor Beasley·James Horton·beaten 7.5 lengths
16/1·17.00
SP
3rd
Electric Arc (GB)
Pat Cosgrave·George Boughey·beaten 3.25 lengths
22/1·23.00
SP

Race time

2m 30.86s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Affettuoso (GB))

“Set the pace early - lost front spot 8f out and settled second - regained command 3f out - opened up inside final furlong - stayed on strongly for an easy win”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.11 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Affettuoso

Ray Dawson · Roger Varian · 3yo

Top-rated of 5

score 45.5 · +4.4 clear of next best (41.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
65strong
95d since last run (rusty)
Ratings50% weight
53average
OR 79 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
46below average
Last 6: 5-2-5
Trainer20% weight
18weak
Roger Varian: 2/27 winners last 14d (7%)

MarketBest price 1.13 (Betano) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Lingfield (AW) 1m4f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.25).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.82

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.25

High (5–5)

IV 0.97

Today: Astrid (draw 4) and Electric Arc (draw 3) get the bias; Affettuoso (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 251 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	3	Affettuoso J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 2 3yo · G · ch	525	9-04	79	—	—	45.5	1/9F·1.11 SP
2	4	Astrid J: Connor Beasley · T: James Horton · draw 4 3yo · F · b	73	8-13	—	—	—	27.5	16/1·17.00 SP
3	5	Electric Arc J: Pat Cosgrave · T: George Boughey · draw 3 3yo · F · b	8	8-13	—	—	—	17.0	22/1·23.00 SP
4	1	Oneinthewell J: Christian Howarth(3) · T: James Owen · draw 1 5yo · G · b	—	9-12	—	—	—	23.0	8/1·9.00 SP
5	2	Lost In Wonder J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Camilla Poulton · draw 5 4yo · F · b	72578	9-07	59	—	—	41.1	50/1·51.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 13:38 Lingfield (AW) on 12 September 2026?

Affettuoso (GB) won the 13:38 Lingfield (AW) at SP 1.11. Ridden by Ray Dawson. Trained by Roger Varian.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 13:38 Lingfield (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Affettuoso, won the race (AI score 45.5).

What were the placings in the 13:38 Lingfield (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Affettuoso (GB) (1.11), 2. Astrid (FR) (17.00), 3. Electric Arc (GB) (23.00).

What was the winning time for the 13:38 Lingfield (AW)?

The winning time was 2m 30.86s.

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