Who won the 16:45 Ascot on 2 October 2026?
Hot Fuss (IRE) won the 16:45 Ascot at SP 2.75. Ridden by Pierre-Louis Jamin. Trained by Tom Dascombe.
16:45 Ascot
Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
2m · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £16,200 · Friday, 2 October 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stHot Fuss (IRE)Pierre-Louis Jamin·Tom Dascombe7/4F·2.75SP
- 2ndShipshape (IRE)Isobelle Chalmers·Bernard Llewellyn·beaten 1.25 lengths6/1·7.00SP
- 3rdJust An Hour (IRE)George Wood·Rod Millman·beaten 1.25 lengths4/1·5.00SP
Race time
3m 34.27s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Hot Fuss (IRE))
“Raced freely early on - led throughout - pushed along 3f out and two lengths up 2f out - stayed on well final furlong to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.75 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Hot Fuss
Hot Fuss looks the one to beat in this six-runner Class 3 contest over two miles at Ascot, with our rating of 99 putting him 14 lb clear of Cranachan, the next best, which is a significant gap on the figures. Cranachan is the chief danger on 85, with Just An Hour (82) and Must Believe (79) next in line, though both have plenty to find with our pick on these terms. Shipshape and Vaguely Royal, both on 78, look to be playing for minor honours on this evidence. Hot Fuss is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Cranachan
Rossa Ryan · Ralph Beckett · 3yo
Top-rated of 6
score 64.7 · +3.8 clear of next best (60.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong41d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight82very strongLast 6: 2-1-4-2-1
- Ratings50% weight59averageOR 88 — above field median
- Trainer20% weight53averageRalph Beckett: 11/53 winners last 14d (21%)
MarketBest price 2.30 (Matchbook) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ascot 2m
full course data →Sample too small to call at this course and trip.
Low (1–2)
IV 1.18
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.05
High (5–6)
IV 0.77
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 35 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Tom Dascombe · draw 6 5yo · G · bv | 3100 | 92 | 42.4 | 7/4F·2.75 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: Isobelle Chalmers(7) · T: Bernard Llewellyn · draw 1 4yo · G · bp | 211253 | 75 | 60.8 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: George Wood · T: Rod Millman · draw 2 6yo · G · b | 343341 | 72 | 48.8 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Jack Dace(5) · T: George Baker · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 451832 | 77 | 51.2 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 5 | 6 | J: William Buick · T: Ian Williams · draw 4 6yo · G · brv | 336116 | 73 | 50.3 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| — | 2 | J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 5 3yo · G · bb | 21421 | 88 | 64.7 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 Ascot?
No — the AI top pick (Cranachan) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 16:45 Ascot?
Top finishers: 1. Hot Fuss (IRE) (2.75), 2. Shipshape (IRE) (7.00), 3. Just An Hour (IRE) (5.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:45 Ascot?
The winning time was 3m 34.27s.
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