14:16 Stratford

Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

2m½f · Hurdle · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £5,446 · Monday, 5 October 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Square d'Alboni

No. 1 · score 64.4 · +28.4 clear of next best · best 5/4·2.30

Best value vs consensus

Prince Vinny

20·20.00 Matchbook · +14% vs fair (consensus 17.60)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Square d'Alboni

Harry Skelton · Dan Skelton · 4yo

Top-rated of 6

score 64.4 · +28.4 clear of next best (36.0)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Ratings50% weight
79strong
OR 118 — highest combined rating in the field
Freshness10% weight
70strong
10d since last run (quick turnaround)
Form20% weight
60average
Last 6: 7-1-1-2-7
Trainer20% weight
30weak
Dan Skelton: 3/25 winners last 14d (12%)

MarketBest price 2.30 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
1Square d'Alboni
Prominent(1)
6Lady of The Isles
Mid-division(1)
2Arcturus Flame
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(3)
3Drumstick 4Prince Vinny 5Red Metal

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	Square d'AlboniPick J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton · draw 0 4yo · G · bClass dropCDOnly rideOnly runner	71127	11-11	118	—	—	64.4	6/4·2.46	2.3·2.30 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook2.3·2.30Betfair Exchange2.3·2.30Smarkets2.26·2.26SmarketsSBK6/5·2.20Hollywood Bets11/10·2.10Betfred11/10·2.10 Spreadex11/10·2.10 Star Sports11/10·2.10 Unibet11/10·2.10 SportingIndex11/10·2.10 7Bet11/10·2.10 Bet36511/10·2.10 BetTom11/10·2.10 Quinn Bet11/10·2.10 Dragon Bet11/10·2.10 BetWright11/10·2.10Betfair Sportsbook11/10·2.10Paddy Power11/10·2.10 William Hill11/10·2.10 Coral11/10·2.10 Ladbrokes11/10·2.10 Midnite11/10·2.10 LiveScore BetEvens·2.00Virgin BetEvens·2.00BetMGMevn·2.00 Boyle Sportsevn·2.00 Bet Victorevn·2.00 Betanoevn·2.00
2	Arcturus Flame J: Jonathan Burke · T: James Owen · draw 0 4yo · G · btDOnly ride	1	11-06	—	—	—	36.0	9/4·3.23	3·3.00 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook3·3.00Smarkets3·3.00Betfair Exchange3·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 SmarketsSBK15/8·2.88 Coral7/4·2.75Hollywood Bets7/4·2.75Boyle Sports7/4·2.75 Quinn Bet7/4·2.75 Midnite7/4·2.75 Betfred7/4·2.75 William Hill7/4·2.75 Paddy Power7/4·2.75 Unibet7/4·2.75 Spreadex7/4·2.75 Star Sports7/4·2.75 BetTom7/4·2.75 SportingIndex7/4·2.75 Ladbrokes7/4·2.75 LiveScore Bet13/8·2.63 Betano13/8·2.63Virgin Bet13/8·2.63Betfair Sportsbook13/8·2.63BetWright13/8·2.63 7Bet13/8·2.63 Bet Victor13/8·2.63 Dragon Bet13/8·2.63 BetMGM13/8·2.62
6	Lady of The Isles J: James Best · T: Sarah-Jayne Davies · draw 0 4yo · F · b	—	10-06	—	—	—	29.0	80/1·78.59	200·200.00 Matchbook · +155% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook200·200.00Bet36580/1·81.00 Betfair Exchange80·80.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Smarkets65·65.00SmarketsSBK60/1·61.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00
5	Red Metal J: Brendan Powell · T: Henrietta C Knight · draw 0 4yo · G · ch	1P2	10-13	—	—	—	25.6	9/2·5.28	5.1·5.10 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook5.1·5.10Smarkets5·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Betfair Exchange5·5.00Virgin Bet7/2·4.50BetTom7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Unibet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Star Sports7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 7Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33
4	Prince Vinny J: Ben Jones · T: Emma Lavelle · draw 0 4yo · G · bOnly ride	686	10-13	—	—	—	24.3	16/1·17.60	20·20.00 Matchbook · +14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook20·20.00Betfair Exchange19·19.00Smarkets18·18.00Spreadex16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 BetWright14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Betfred14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00
3	Drumstick J: Jack Hogan · T: Fergal O'Brien · draw 0 5yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	8	11-00	—	—	—	21.0	40/1·39.88	90·90.00 Matchbook · +126% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook90·90.00Smarkets50·50.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 Betfair Exchange42·42.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 7Bet35/1·36.00 Unibet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00Star Sports33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–28 bookmakers per horse with the 17% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)?

The Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race) is off at 14:16 on 5 October 2026 at Stratford (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:16 Stratford?

2m½f, Class 4, Hurdle, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:16 Stratford?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:16 Stratford?

The AI top-rated runner is Square d'Alboni (score 64.4, best price 2.30). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:16 Stratford?

The market favourite is Square d'Alboni at a best price of 2.30.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org