14:30 Roscommon

Ireland

Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div I)

7½f · Flat · Soft · 14 runners · €6,000 · Monday, 12 October 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 11th

1st
Zarenakarena (IRE)
Colin Keane·Eddie & Patrick Harty
16/1·17.00
SP
2nd
Dark Willow (IRE)
R. P. Cleary·Mrs Mary Whelehan·beaten 1.25 lengths
40/1·41.00
SP
3rd
Kayamite (IRE)
Nathan Crosse·Chris Timmons·beaten 2.75 lengths
66/1·67.00
SP

Race time

1m 39.09s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Zarenakarena (IRE))

“Raced in fifth just behind the front group - made ground over 2f out to join the front rank 1 1/2f out - edged ahead 1f out when driven - stayed on strongly to win”

AI top-rated Watercraft (score 43.4) finished 11th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 50.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: The Bear Trap

The Bear Trap heads our ratings on 76, and he's narrowly ahead of Goldrush Kid on 75, so this looks a tight contest in a 15-runner field over a testing eight furlongs on soft ground. Goldrush Kid is the obvious danger, being only a pound behind, while Buttermere Ridge and Alex Belardo, both on 68, are the next best and could make the frame if the front two falter. The Bear Trap has a slender but genuine edge on our figures and gets the vote, even if confidence is low in such an open race. Our selection is The Bear Trap.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Watercraft

Chris Hayes · J P Flavin · 3yo

Top-rated of 15

score 43.4 · +1.3 clear of next best (42.0)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
23d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
63small sample (n=4)
J P Flavin: 1/4 winners last 14d (25%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
37below average
OR 56
Form20% weight
11weak
Last 6: 8-6-6-0

MarketBest price 101.00 (Virgin Bet) · 9th in the market of 15.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Roscommon 7½f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.26).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.26

Mid (6–10)

IV 1.09

High (11–15)

IV 0.64

Today: Goldrush Kid (draw 4) and Buttermere Ridge (draw 5) get the bias; Watercraft (draw 15) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 66 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	10	Zarenakarena J: Colin Keane · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty · draw 6 4yo · F · b	900	9-04	48	—	—	30.2	16/1·17.00 SP
2	12	Dark Willow J: R. P. Cleary · T: Mrs Mary Whelehan · draw 1 6yo · M · b	04080	8-11	41	—	—	21.9	40/1·41.00 SP
3	14	Kayamite J: Nathan Crosse · T: Chris Timmons · draw 7 4yo · F · bt	87080	8-10	40	—	—	20.9	66/1·67.00 SP
4	4	Buttermere Ridge J: Diego Lima · T: Oliver McKiernan · draw 5 5yo · G · chtv	974003	9-13	57	—	—	34.1	9/2·5.50 SP
5	15	Master Garvey J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Joseph Anthony Murray · draw 2 6yo · G · btb	503970	8-10	36	—	—	23.4	12/1·13.00 SP
6	5	Ella's Gold J: Robbie Colgan · T: Matthew J Smith · draw 9 3yo · F · chbFT B	230408	9-11	58	—	—	33.5	12/1·13.00 SP
7	13	Sunday Sovereign J: Zoe McMullan(10) · T: G A Kingston · draw 3 9yo · G · bh	80400	8-11	41	—	—	22.6	7/1·8.00 SP
8	9	Monocle Rocket J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel McLoughlin · draw 11 3yo · G · bp	50207	9-04	51	—	—	42.0	11/4F·3.75 SP
9	2	The Bear Trap J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 8 5yo · G · bv	5040	10-01	59	—	—	37.0	22/1·23.00 SP
10	3	Alex Belardo J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: John McConnell · draw 12 5yo · G · chv	621067	10-00	58	—	—	37.2	9/1·10.00 SP
11	7	Watercraft J: Chris Hayes · T: J P Flavin · draw 15 3yo · C · b	8660	9-09	56	—	—	43.4	50/1·51.00 SP
12	8	Blue Orquidea J: J M Sheridan · T: Denis Gerard Hogan · draw 13 3yo · F · btFT T	5060	9-08	55	—	—	31.6	40/1·41.00 SP
13	1	Goldrush Kid J: Sam Coen(5) · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 4 5yo · G · btp	85P10	10-01	59	—	—	39.9	3/1·4.00 SP
14	11	Tamazu J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Fergal Birrane · draw 10 7yo · C · bt	0750	8-13	43	—	—	36.7	28/1·29.00 SP
—	—	Little Wing J: Julian Pietropaolo(7) · T: Charles O'Brien · draw 14 3yo · F · b	99000	9-10	57	—	—	29.2	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:30 Roscommon on 12 October 2026?

Zarenakarena (IRE) won the 14:30 Roscommon at SP 17.00. Ridden by Colin Keane. Trained by Eddie & Patrick Harty.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:30 Roscommon?

No — the AI top pick (Watercraft) finished 11.

What were the placings in the 14:30 Roscommon?

Top finishers: 1. Zarenakarena (IRE) (17.00), 2. Dark Willow (IRE) (41.00), 3. Kayamite (IRE) (67.00).

What was the winning time for the 14:30 Roscommon?

The winning time was 1m 39.09s.

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