Louie The Legend goes down as v1.3 filters out an entire flat card

Tuesday's flat card — 42 races, six meetings, two countries — produced precisely zero qualifying selections from v1.3. One evening pick fired, and it lost.

What happened

Tuesday's UK and Irish programme ran across Lingfield (Good), Nottingham (Good To Soft), Newcastle Tapeta (Standard), Cork (Soft), Hexham (Good), and Huntingdon (Good To Firm). Eight races at Cork were automatically excluded by the Soft-going filter baked into v1.3 — a rule that exists because Soft going returned −13.9% ROI across 167 historical picks in the backtest. The remaining 34 races at five meetings passed the going filter but none cleared the combined score and price-band criteria (3.0–15.0 decimal) required for a published selection.

That's the system working as designed. v1.3 tips roughly one race in four. On Tuesday's daytime flat programme, the answer was zero.

How the picks went

The only selections came from the evening jumping card:

• v1.0 published tip — Louie The Legend (Warwick, novice limited handicap hurdle): Advised at 5.40. Score: 59.2. Never threatened. Result: lose. P&L: −1pt.
• v1.3 auto-treble (Louie The Legend 5.5 / Green Asset 6.0 at Ffos Las / Jlow 5.9 at Ffos Las): combined odds 194.7, stake 2pt. All three legs went down. P&L: −2pt.
• v2.6 treble (Green Asset 5.6 / Forest Spirit 3.65 / Onehundredneighty 3.25 at Warwick): combined odds 66.4, stake 2pt. P&L: −2pt.

Settled total for the session: −5pts.

What the model got right and wrong

Louie The Legend scored 59.2 — solid mid-range, reflecting reasonable ratings and form — and was priced inside the band. The selection logic is consistent with how v1.3 is supposed to work. Nothing screams bad process; the backtest runs a 22.4% strike rate, meaning roughly three in four picks lose. One losing evening is the norm, not the exception.

What's harder to dismiss is three picks from Ffos Las all going against the model on the same card. That may be ground, pace, or simply variance on a small jumping card — one data point isn't enough to adjust anything. But it's flagged.

Still live today

The Furlong model's treble — I'm Workin On It (Kempton AW, 4.33), Hale End (Ayr, 4.80), and High Fibre (Warwick, 4.50); combined odds 93.5, stake 2pt — remains unsettled. Results this afternoon and evening.

Opinions, not advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.