Yes, in places. Across 865 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.11); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.28). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 865 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13% 128 wins | 20.3% | 1.24 vs course avg | 1.14 vs market | 68.8% | 985 |
| Middle | 10.4% 84 wins | 14.9% | 1.00 vs course avg | 0.94 vs market | 60% | 807 |
| High (outside) | 7.7% 69 wins | 13.9% | 0.73 vs course avg | 0.84 vs market | 61% | 900 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.9% 141 wins | 17.2% | 1.11 vs course avg | 0.94 vs market | 64.7% | 1296 |
| Middle | 10.9% 116 wins | 16.8% | 1.11 vs course avg | 1.14 vs market | 65.7% | 1063 |
| High (outside) | 7.7% 90 wins | 12.9% | 0.78 vs course avg | 0.94 vs market | 58% | 1167 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.9% 77 wins | 18.7% | 1.28 vs course avg | 1.38 vs market | 68.6% | 595 |
| Middle | 9.4% 46 wins | 15.1% | 0.93 vs course avg | 0.80 vs market | 63.6% | 491 |
| High (outside) | 7.6% 41 wins | 13.2% | 0.75 vs course avg | 0.71 vs market | 59.2% | 538 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.2% 29 wins | 20.3% | 1.08 vs course avg | 0.68 vs market | 68.7% | 237 |
| Middle | 10.3% 19 wins | 15.1% | 0.91 vs course avg | 1.35 vs market | 62.7% | 185 |
| High (outside) | 11.1% 23 wins | 16.9% | 0.98 vs course avg | 1.11 vs market | 68.9% | 207 |
Yes, in places. Across 865 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.11); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.28). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Partly. Some favoured bands at Chelmsford (AW) show A/E below 1 (bias over-priced), others do not — the tables below show which is which.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.