Dundalk (AW) draw bias

Yes, in places. Across 954 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.11). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 954 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 217 races

No meaningful draw bias

5-6f · 217 races · field avg win 8.4%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	7.9% 74 wins	14.8%	0.94 vs course avg	0.95 vs market	62.8%	940
Middle	8.9% 69 wins	15%	1.06 vs course avg	1.01 vs market	61.7%	779
High (outside)	8.5% 74 wins	13.2%	1.02 vs course avg	1.04 vs market	61.1%	868

7-8f · 440 races

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.11)

7-8f · 440 races · field avg win 7.2%

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.11)

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	7.5% 164 wins	12.7%	1.04 vs course avg	0.90 vs market	62.1%	2188
Middle	8% 147 wins	12.9%	1.11 vs course avg	1.33 vs market	63.9%	1846
High (outside)	6.1% 129 wins	10.3%	0.86 vs course avg	0.81 vs market	59.8%	2100

9-12f · 270 races

No meaningful draw bias

9-12f · 270 races · field avg win 7.3%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	6.5% 86 wins	11.4%	0.89 vs course avg	0.91 vs market	61.3%	1326
Middle	7.9% 88 wins	13.3%	1.09 vs course avg	0.80 vs market	64.3%	1112
High (outside)	7.6% 96 wins	11.8%	1.04 vs course avg	1.25 vs market	61.6%	1269

13f+ · 27 races

Sample too small to call

13f+ · 27 races · field avg win 8.2%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	9.2% 11 wins	15%	1.11 vs course avg	1.06 vs market	58.7%	120
Middle	7.2% 7 wins	13.4%	0.88 vs course avg	0.49 vs market	66%	97
High (outside)	8.1% 9 wins	12.6%	0.98 vs course avg	1.43 vs market	58.8%	111

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Dundalk (AW)?

Does the market already price in the Dundalk (AW) draw bias?

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Dundalk (AW) hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.