Yes, in places. Across 232 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.14); over 9-12f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.14). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 232 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.3% 25 wins | 16.4% | 0.83 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 59.7% | 268 |
| Middle | 13.6% 30 wins | 21.7% | 1.21 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 66.5% | 221 |
| High (outside) | 11.2% 28 wins | 22.1% | 1.00 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 64.8% | 249 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.6% 31 wins | 19.8% | 1.00 vs course avg | 1.16 vs market | 58.8% | 293 |
| Middle | 12.1% 29 wins | 24.3% | 1.14 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 65.7% | 239 |
| High (outside) | 9.3% 25 wins | 18.2% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 58.5% | 269 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.3% 27 wins | 22.7% | 1.14 vs course avg | 1.37 vs market | 66.8% | 203 |
| Middle | 10.2% 17 wins | 17.5% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.88 vs market | 59.4% | 166 |
| High (outside) | 11.2% 20 wins | 21.9% | 0.96 vs course avg | 0.66 vs market | 57.6% | 178 |
Yes, in places. Across 232 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.14); over 9-12f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.14). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Lingfield hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.