Is there a draw bias at Navan?
Yes, in places. Across 191 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.11). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Navan draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 191 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.11). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 191 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 101 races
Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.11)5-6f · 101 races · field avg win 7.3%
Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.11)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.1% 40 wins | 14.6% | 1.11 vs course avg | 0.93 vs market | 62.8% | 494 |
| Middle | 5.6% 24 wins | 10.1% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.64 vs market | 58.8% | 427 |
| High (outside) | 8.1% 37 wins | 12.7% | 1.10 vs course avg | 1.57 vs market | 59.2% | 458 |
9-12f · 52 races
No meaningful draw bias9-12f · 52 races · field avg win 6.6%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 6.8% 19 wins | 10.4% | 1.03 vs course avg | 0.76 vs market | 60.3% | 278 |
| Middle | 7% 17 wins | 11.9% | 1.05 vs course avg | 1.05 vs market | 64.8% | 243 |
| High (outside) | 6.1% 16 wins | 9.2% | 0.92 vs course avg | 1.22 vs market | 59.7% | 262 |
13f+ · 38 races
Sample too small to call13f+ · 38 races · field avg win 6.5%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 5.7% 12 wins | 9.1% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 54.7% | 209 |
| Middle | 6.1% 11 wins | 11.7% | 0.94 vs course avg | 1.09 vs market | 63% | 180 |
| High (outside) | 7.7% 15 wins | 12.4% | 1.19 vs course avg | 1.08 vs market | 61.9% | 194 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Navan draw bias?
Largely, yes. Every favoured third at Navan shows A/E below 1 — the market over-bets the famous stalls, so blindly backing the bias has lost money against Betfair prices.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.