Is there a draw bias at Nottingham?
Yes, in places. Across 386 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 13f+ — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.26). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Nottingham draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 386 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 13f+ — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.26). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 386 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 149 races
No meaningful draw bias5-6f · 149 races · field avg win 10.6%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.5% 49 wins | 17.4% | 0.90 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 57.2% | 518 |
| Middle | 11% 46 wins | 16.9% | 1.04 vs course avg | 0.93 vs market | 61.3% | 420 |
| High (outside) | 11.4% 54 wins | 19.8% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.08 vs market | 64.2% | 474 |
9-12f · 196 races
No meaningful draw bias9-12f · 196 races · field avg win 10.3%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.4% 65 wins | 17.5% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.93 vs market | 61% | 690 |
| Middle | 10.2% 59 wins | 18.1% | 0.99 vs course avg | 1.09 vs market | 59.5% | 579 |
| High (outside) | 11.4% 72 wins | 19.7% | 1.11 vs course avg | 1.00 vs market | 59.5% | 629 |
13f+ · 41 races
Strong: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.26)13f+ · 41 races · field avg win 11.1%
Strong: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.26)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.3% 10 wins | 16.8% | 0.66 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 60% | 137 |
| Middle | 12.7% 14 wins | 22.7% | 1.14 vs course avg | 0.69 vs market | 66.5% | 110 |
| High (outside) | 14% 17 wins | 17.4% | 1.26 vs course avg | 1.25 vs market | 67.5% | 121 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Nottingham draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Nottingham hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.