Is there a draw bias at Southwell (AW)?
Yes, in places. Across 1,348 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 13f+ — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.16). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Southwell (AW) draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 1,348 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 13f+ — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.16). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 1,348 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 436 races
No meaningful draw bias5-6f · 436 races · field avg win 9.8%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.6% 171 wins | 19.9% | 1.09 vs course avg | 0.92 vs market | 60.4% | 1606 |
| Middle | 9.4% 127 wins | 17.1% | 0.96 vs course avg | 1.16 vs market | 58.8% | 1347 |
| High (outside) | 9.2% 137 wins | 16% | 0.94 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 58.3% | 1492 |
7-8f · 587 races
No meaningful draw bias7-8f · 587 races · field avg win 9.7%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.3% 202 wins | 16.6% | 0.96 vs course avg | 1.00 vs market | 57.7% | 2174 |
| Middle | 10.1% 186 wins | 17.6% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.04 vs market | 61% | 1842 |
| High (outside) | 9.8% 199 wins | 17.2% | 1.01 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 59% | 2029 |
9-12f · 208 races
No meaningful draw bias9-12f · 208 races · field avg win 10.1%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.6% 79 wins | 16.4% | 1.05 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 59.1% | 744 |
| Middle | 10.9% 67 wins | 19.7% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.18 vs market | 63.3% | 615 |
| High (outside) | 8.9% 61 wins | 16.4% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 58.4% | 684 |
13f+ · 117 races
Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.16)13f+ · 117 races · field avg win 11.1%
Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.16)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.3% 36 wins | 17.4% | 0.84 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 58.8% | 386 |
| Middle | 12.8% 41 wins | 21.9% | 1.16 vs course avg | 1.22 vs market | 63.4% | 320 |
| High (outside) | 11.4% 40 wins | 18.8% | 1.03 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 59.9% | 351 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Southwell (AW) draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Southwell (AW) hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.