Is there a draw bias at Windsor?
Yes, in places. Across 501 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Windsor draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 501 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 501 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 245 races
No meaningful draw bias5-6f · 245 races · field avg win 9.5%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.4% 78 wins | 14.9% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 58.1% | 933 |
| Middle | 10% 78 wins | 16.9% | 1.05 vs course avg | 1.09 vs market | 59.7% | 783 |
| High (outside) | 10.4% 88 wins | 19% | 1.09 vs course avg | 1.07 vs market | 63.7% | 848 |
7-8f · 99 races
No meaningful draw bias7-8f · 99 races · field avg win 9.2%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.4% 37 wins | 17.3% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 61% | 392 |
| Middle | 9.7% 31 wins | 16.5% | 1.05 vs course avg | 1.44 vs market | 62.3% | 321 |
| High (outside) | 8.6% 31 wins | 15% | 0.93 vs course avg | 0.78 vs market | 56.9% | 361 |
9-12f · 157 races
Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.21)9-12f · 157 races · field avg win 9.8%
Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.21)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.4% 55 wins | 16% | 0.96 vs course avg | 0.76 vs market | 61.6% | 588 |
| Middle | 11.9% 58 wins | 17.8% | 1.21 vs course avg | 1.31 vs market | 65.5% | 488 |
| High (outside) | 8.3% 44 wins | 15.6% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.96 vs market | 62.4% | 527 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Windsor draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Windsor hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.