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14:50 Nottingham

Family Fun Raceday Sunday 31st May Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 10 runners · £6,480 · Tuesday, 19 May 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 2/1·3.00
  1. 1st
    Knights Charge (IRE)AI top pick · 63.7
    Ray Dawson·Roger Varian
    2/1·3.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Bay Royale (GB)
    Pierre-Louis Jamin·Harry Eustace·beaten 1.5 lengths
    5/6F·1.83
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Outflank (IRE)
    Luke Catton·John & Thady Gosden·beaten 3.25 lengths
    11/2·6.50
    SP
Race time
2m 14.68s+8.08s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

In-running (Knights Charge (IRE))

“Prominent - pushed along over 2f out - led narrowly over 1f out - reminder and ran on well inside final furlong - won going away”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Bay Royale

There isn't much between the main contenders on the figures. BAY ROYALE brings the bonus of having course form.

Forecast 7/4 Bay Royale, 15/8 Knights Charge, 9/2 Cloud Forest, Outflank, 25/1 Liam Mera Kai, 40/1 Semele, 50/1 Shopaholic, 66/1 Cliff Danger, Zurna, 100/1 Barak Warrior

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Knights Charge

Ray Dawson · Roger Varian · 3yo

Top-rated of 10
score 63.7 · +2.2 clear of next best (61.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    21d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    87very strong
    Last 6: 3-1
  • Trainer20% weight
    55average
    Roger Varian: 4/18 winners last 14d (22%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    51average
    RPR 76 — above field median
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Nottingham 1m2f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)
IV 0.91
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.99
High (9–11)
IV 1.11

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 196 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
16
Knights Charge
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 9
3yo · C · b
31
—63.7
2/1·3.00
SP
25
Bay Royale
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Harry Eustace · draw 1
3yo · C · ch
41
—55.8
5/6F·1.83
SP
310
Outflank
J: Luke Catton(3) · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 11
3yo · G · b
33
—61.5
11/2·6.50
SP
48
Cliff Danger
J: Rob Hornby · T: Pam Sly · draw 4
3yo · G · b
6
—26.0
80/1·81.00
SP
52
Liam Mera Kai
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Warren Greatrex · draw 7
5yo · G · b
——18.5
40/1·41.00
SP
61
Cloud Forest
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Saeed bin Suroor · draw 10
4yo · G · b
——35.0
11/2·6.50
SP
74
Shopaholic
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Jack Jones · draw 5
4yo · F · b
5
—38.7
125/1·126.00
SP
87
Barak Warrior
J: Jonny Peate · T: James Keane · draw 2
3yo · C · ch
77
—26.2
150/1·151.00
SP
911
Zurna
J: Josephine Gordon · T: Julia & Shelley Birkett · draw 6
3yo · G · b
——15.0
200/1·201.00
SP
103
Semele
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Lucy Wadham · draw 8
4yo · F · b
43
—56.2
125/1·126.00
SP
——
Domenico Contarini
J: NON-RUNNER · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 3
3yo · C · b
25
—49.9—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:50 Nottingham on 19 May 2026?

Knights Charge (IRE) won the 14:50 Nottingham at SP 3.00. Ridden by Ray Dawson. Trained by Roger Varian.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:50 Nottingham?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Knights Charge, won the race (AI score 63.7).

What were the placings in the 14:50 Nottingham?

Top finishers: 1. Knights Charge (IRE) (3.00), 2. Bay Royale (GB) (1.83), 3. Outflank (IRE) (6.50).

What was the winning time for the 14:50 Nottingham?

The winning time was 2m 14.68s, 8.08s slower than standard.

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