Who won the 16:02 Carlisle on 24 June 2026?
Ellusive Butterfly (IRE) won the 16:02 Carlisle at SP 3.50. Ridden by Clifford Lee. Trained by K R Burke.
16:02 Carlisle
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Eternal Stakes (Fillies' Listed)
7f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 10 runners · £39,697 · Wednesday, 24 June 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stEllusive Butterfly (IRE)Clifford Lee·K R Burke5/2·3.50SP
- 2ndJust A Girl (GB)Connor Beasley·Charlie Johnston·beaten .75 lengths11/1·12.00SP
- 3rdStimulative Trip (FR)Paul Mulrennan·David Menuisier·beaten 1 length28/1·29.00SP
Race time
1m 25.33s+0.53s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Ellusive Butterfly (IRE))
“Set the pace - under pressure from 2f out - narrowly headed over 1f out - rallied to regain the advantage inside final furlong - stayed on strongly”
AI top-rated Albaydaa (score 64.6) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Albaydaa
Albaydaa heads our figures as the top-rated runner, having taken a handicap at this track last time with determination and looking progressive at this level. Effective from 6-7f on a sound surface and the AW, she has more to offer and rates a genuine chance of taking another forward step. Golden Palace is the main danger — placed at Listed level last time and capable in this grade — while Ellusive Butterfly brings Listed-winning form over this trip but must now concede weight. Albaydaa is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Albaydaa
Tom Marquand · W J Haggas · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 64.6 · +2.4 clear of next best (62.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong25d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight85very strongLast 6: 2-1-3-2-1
- Ratings50% weight57averageOR 86
- Trainer20% weight45below averageW J Haggas: 10/57 winners last 14d (18%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–4)
IV 1.00
Mid (5–7)
IV 0.83
High (8–10)
IV 1.16
Today: Applesandpears (draw 8) and Assaranca (draw 9) get the bias; Albaydaa (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 3yo · F · b | 124471 | 100 | 62.2 | 5/2·3.50 SP |
| 2 | 9 | J: Connor Beasley · T: C Johnston · draw 4 3yo · F · b | 73422 | 83 | 58.1 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: P Mulrennan · T: D Menuisier · draw 6 3yo · F · b | 196 | 89 | 59.4 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 4 | 7 | J: Jason Hart · T: K Scott · draw 10 3yo · F · b | 12746 | 93 | 48.8 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Tom Marquand · T: W J Haggas · draw 5 3yo · F · ch | 21321 | 86 | 64.6 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 6 | 3 | 3yo · F · b | 21183 | 84 | 57.2 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 7 | 4 | J: P J McDonald · T: R Hannon · draw 9 3yo · F · b | 66315 | 79 | 51.4 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 8 | 8 | J: Barry McHugh · T: R A Fahey · draw 1 3yo · F · ch | 76573 | 99 | 54.7 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 9 | 5 | J: Ray Dawson · T: R Varian · draw 7 3yo · F · bbFT B | 21896 | 87 | 56.3 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| PU | 6 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Jack Jones · draw 2 3yo · F · ch | 12 | 77 | 51.2 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:02 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Albaydaa) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 16:02 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Ellusive Butterfly (IRE) (3.50), 2. Just A Girl (GB) (12.00), 3. Stimulative Trip (FR) (29.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:02 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 25.33s, 0.53s slower than standard.
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