Who won the 15:10 Carlisle on 30 May 2026?
Estrange (IRE) won the 15:10 Carlisle at SP 1.73. Ridden by Daniel Tudhope. Trained by David O'Meara.
15:10 Carlisle
Betway Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (Formerly Known As The Pinnacle Stakes)
1m3f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 7 runners · £70,888 · Saturday, 30 May 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stEstrange (IRE)Daniel Tudhope·David O'Meara8/11F·1.73SP
- 2ndWaardah (IRE)Callum Rodriguez·Owen Burrows·beaten 1.5 lengths4/1·5.00SP
- 3rdCoedana (IRE)Rossa Ryan·Edward Bethell·beaten 2.5 lengths12/1·13.00SP
Race time
2m 22.58s+0.18s vs std
On standard — typical pace for the course/distance.
In-running (Estrange (IRE))
“In touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - led under 2f out - soon pushed along - comfortably”
AI top-rated Naga (score 69.7) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 10.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Azaniya
Last year's winner Estrange commands major respect but the race-fit AZANIYA may represent a bit of value.
Forecast 10/11 Estrange, 9/2 Waardah, 6/1 Azaniya, 9/1 Crepe Suzette, 12/1 Coedana, 14/1 Sharpen, 16/1 Naga, 40/1 Patagonia Girl
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Naga
James Doyle · John & Thady Gosden · 4yo
Top-rated of 7
score 69.7 · +0.3 clear of next best (69.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong21d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight82very strongLast 6: 5-1-1-1-3
- Ratings50% weight63averageOR 86 · RPR 106 · TS 90
- Trainer20% weight60averageJohn & Thady Gosden: 7/29 winners last 14d (24%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 1m3f
full course data →Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.31).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.31
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.89
High (7–8)
IV 0.75
Today: Naga (draw 3) and Estrange (draw 2) get the bias; Azaniya (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 52 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 2 5yo · M · gr | 1122 | 116 | 64.3 | 8/11F·1.73 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Owen Burrows · draw 6 4yo · F · b | 4118 | 107 | 60.7 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 3 | 2 | J: Rossa Ryan · T: Edward Bethell · draw 1 4yo · F · b | 31132 | 96 | 62.9 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: James Doyle · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 3 4yo · F · ch | 51113 | 86 | 69.7 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 4 4yo · F · bpFT P | 22235 | 103 | 69.4 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Owen Burrows · draw 8 4yo · F · b | 14115 | 110 | 66.5 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 7 | 6 | J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 7 4yo · F · b | 13021 | 84 | 60.8 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| — | — | J: William Buick · T: George Boughey · draw 5 4yo · F · b | 71427 | 96 | 59.5 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:10 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Naga) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 15:10 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Estrange (IRE) (1.73), 2. Waardah (IRE) (5.00), 3. Coedana (IRE) (13.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:10 Carlisle?
The winning time was 2m 22.58s, on standard time.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org