Who won the 16:20 Carlisle on 30 May 2026?
Albaydaa (IRE) won the 16:20 Carlisle at SP 1.80. Ridden by Tom Marquand. Trained by William Haggas.
16:20 Carlisle
Betway Fillies' Handicap
7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · £15,702 · Saturday, 30 May 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 4/5F·1.80Race report
- 1stAlbaydaa (IRE)AI top pick · 64.4Tom Marquand·William Haggas4/5F·1.80SP
- 2ndJust A Girl (GB)Saffie Osborne·Charlie Johnston·beaten 0.3 lengths9/1·10.00SP
- 3rdApplesandpears (GB)Daniel Tudhope·Edward Bethell·beaten .5 lengths7/1·8.00SP
Race time
1m 26.70s+1.90s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Albaydaa (IRE))
“In touch with leaders - ridden over 2f out - led over 1f out - hung right and faced challenges inside final furlong - just did enough”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.80 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Albaydaa
This looks less complicated for ALBAYDAA than her first two handicaps this year and she should be able to take advantage.
Forecast 11/10 Albaydaa, 4/1 Distant Shore, 6/1 Lady Kodiac, 10/1 Orchid, Just A Girl, 16/1 Jannas Journey, Ziggy's Queen, Applesandpears, 25/1 Fouette
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Albaydaa
Tom Marquand · William Haggas · 3yo
Top-rated of 9
score 64.4 · +2.3 clear of next best (62.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong22d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight76strongLast 6: 3-2-1-3-2
- Ratings50% weight58averageOR 84 · RPR 93 · TS 85 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight50averageWilliam Haggas: 9/46 winners last 14d (20%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.00
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.83
High (7–9)
IV 1.16
Today: Albaydaa (draw 8) and Distant Shore (draw 9) get the bias; Orchid (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 8 3yo · F · ch | 32132 | 84 | 64.4 | 4/5F·1.80 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5 3yo · F · b | 07342 | 82 | 52.7 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 2118 | 84 | 55.9 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 2 5yo · M · b | 90978 | 77 | 46.7 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 5 | 9 | J: Sean D Bowen · T: Roger Varian · draw 9 3yo · F · chh | 13 | 76 | 62.1 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: James Doyle · T: James Tate · draw 7 3yo · F · b | 31152 | 87 | 55.3 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 7 | 1 | J: Rossa Ryan · T: James Horton · draw 3 4yo · F · b | 65066 | 89 | 36.6 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 6 5yo · M · bht | 232179 | 74 | 47.3 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 9 | 2 | J: William Buick · T: George Boughey · draw 4 4yo · F · bt | 17546 | 85 | 55.8 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:20 Carlisle?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Albaydaa, won the race (AI score 64.4).
What were the placings in the 16:20 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Albaydaa (IRE) (1.80), 2. Just A Girl (GB) (10.00), 3. Applesandpears (GB) (8.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:20 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 26.70s, 1.90s slower than standard.
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