18+ • Bet Responsibly • Racing Alpha does not accept betsBeGambleAware.org
RacingAlpha

Ivor Thirst Sprint Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · £5,400 · Saturday, 4 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 3rd
  1. 1st
    Courageous Sioux (GB)
    Georgia Dobie·Clive Cox
    5/2·3.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Miracleoftheandes (IRE)
    Harry Vigors·Warren Greatrex·beaten 1.5 lengths
    15/2·8.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Court Alert (IRE)AI top pick · 44.4
    Rhys Clutterbuck·Eve Johnson Houghton·beaten .75 lengths
    9/4F·3.25
    SP
Race time
1m 0.16s+2.96s vs std

Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Each-way25.0/100 rating
Tide Runner
11.00Virgin Bet
Place portion settles at 3.00 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Court Alert

Court Alert holds the clearest claims in this Nottingham novice, his profile improving race by race since returning from time off. His latest effort deserves real credit given the trouble he met in running, and the manner of his fade late points to today's drop to the minimum trip suiting him well. Mariselle, having travelled strongly for much of her own debut, rates the biggest threat, especially with the shorter trip also likely to suit her, while Courageous Sioux cannot be dismissed either - a lengthy layoff needs overcoming, but this yard has a strong history of sharpening horses for their second run. Court Alert is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Court Alert

Rhys Clutterbuck · Eve Johnson Houghton · 3yo

Top-rated of 9
score 44.4 · +14.5 clear of next best (29.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    13d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Ratings50% weight
    49below average
    OR 73 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    35below average
    Eve Johnson Houghton: 4/28 winners last 14d (14%)
  • Form20% weight
    30weak
    Last 6: 5-2-0-8-4
MarketBest price 3.50 (Bet365) · 2nd in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Nottingham 5f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)
IV 0.90
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.04
High (7–9)
IV 1.08

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 149 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
16
J: Georgia Dobie · T: Clive Cox · draw 5
3yo · F · br
5
19.0
5/2·3.50
SP
28
J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Warren Greatrex · draw 6
3yo · F · bFirst after wind op
84
11.2
15/2·8.50
SP
31
3yo · G · brbFT B
52084
7344.4
9/4F·3.25
SP
43
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: James Tate · draw 4
3yo · C · ch
18.0
100/30·4.33
SP
52
3yo · G · b
25.0
33/1·34.00
SP
64
J: David Nolan · T: Peter Niven · draw 2
3yo · G · ch
58
29.8
66/1·67.00
SP
77
J: Tom Eaves · T: Adam Kirby · draw 1
3yo · F · b
4
22.5
25/1·26.00
SP
85
J: Mikey Sheehy · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 3
3yo · G · ch
37
25.0
22/1·23.00
SP
99
J: Rowan Scott · T: Grant Tuer · draw 9
3yo · F · b
26.5
9/1·10.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 18:30 Nottingham on 4 July 2026?

Courageous Sioux (GB) won the 18:30 Nottingham at SP 3.50. Ridden by Georgia Dobie. Trained by Clive Cox.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:30 Nottingham?

No — the AI top pick (Court Alert) finished 3.

What were the placings in the 18:30 Nottingham?

Top finishers: 1. Courageous Sioux (GB) (3.50), 2. Miracleoftheandes (IRE) (8.50), 3. Court Alert (IRE) (3.25).

What was the winning time for the 18:30 Nottingham?

The winning time was 1m 0.16s, 2.96s slower than standard.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org