Who won the 16:55 Carlisle on 9 July 2026?
Homestrait (IRE) won the 16:55 Carlisle at SP 8.00. Ridden by Cam Hardie. Trained by Brian Ellison.
16:55 Carlisle
Dalston 'Confined' Handicap
7f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 10 runners · £4,187 · Thursday, 9 July 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stHomestrait (IRE)Cam Hardie·Brian Ellison7/1·8.00SP
- 2ndSupreme Clarets (IRE)Warren Fentiman·Richard & Peter Fahey·beaten 0.3 lengths10/3·4.33SP
- 3rdBlack Storm (IRE)Jason Hart·Katie Scott·beaten 0.3 lengths2/1F·3.00SP
Race time
1m 25.45s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Homestrait (IRE))
“sat handy behind the pace - asked for effort 2f out - closing ground 1f out - disputing the advantage inside the last - hit the front with 50 yards to run - stayed on strongly to prevail”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way48.9/100 rating
Albeseeingyer
6.20Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Black Storm
Black Storm heads our ratings for this Class 5 seven-furlong contest at Carlisle on good going, rated seven points clear of the next-best across a competitive twelve-runner field. Homestrait, Judicature and Ecclefechan rate closely bunched behind him and represent the main threats to our selection. The rest of the field is more workmanlike on these figures, and confidence in Black Storm is medium rather than a certainty. He remains our pick on the strength of his rating advantage.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Albeseeingyer
Oisin Orr · Steph Hollinshead · 7yo
Top-rated of 12
score 48.9 · +3.1 clear of next best (45.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong24d since last run (race-fit window)
- Ratings50% weight44below averageOR 66
- Trainer20% weight43below averageSteph Hollinshead: 2/12 winners last 14d (17%)
- Form20% weight42below averageLast 6: 0-2-5-6-3
MarketBest price 6.20 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 12.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–4)
IV 1.00
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.83
High (9–12)
IV 1.16
Today: Fan Mail (draw 12) and Homestrait (draw 9) get the bias; Albeseeingyer (draw 6) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Brian Ellison · draw 9 3yo · F · bp | 574223 | 70 | 45.3 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 2 | 11 | J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 11 3yo · G · ch | 67492 | 65 | 44.1 | 10/3·4.33 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott · draw 3 5yo · G · br | 04425 | 68 | 45.3 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 4 | 8 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby · draw 12 4yo · G · bp | 562553 | 61 | 45.7 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 10 8yo · G · b | 99759 | 61 | 38.2 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 6 | 6 | J: Stevie Donohoe · T: John Ryan · draw 1 3yo · G · b | 55498 | 69 | 34.0 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 7 | 2 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith · draw 7 4yo · G · b | 94287 | 66 | 37.9 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: Brian Ellison · draw 4 3yo · G · chpFT P | 848937 | 69 | 40.7 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 9 | 9 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Archie Watson · draw 8 3yo · G · b | 2640 | 67 | 37.4 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 10 | 10 | J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 3yo · F · b | 94466 | 67 | 41.3 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Lewis Chalkley(7) · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 2 3yo · G · b | 64390 | 65 | 35.4 | — |
| — | — | J: Oisin Orr · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 6 7yo · M · b | 02563 | 66 | 48.9 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:55 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Albeseeingyer) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 16:55 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Homestrait (IRE) (8.00), 2. Supreme Clarets (IRE) (4.33), 3. Black Storm (IRE) (3.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:55 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 25.45s.
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