Who won the 15:44 Naas on 4 July 2026?
Dancing Destiny (IRE) won the 15:44 Naas at SP 6.00. Ridden by Chris Hayes. Trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien.
15:44 Naas
IrelandIrish EBF Pat Smullen Stakes (Listed)
1m · Flat · Class 1 · Good · 7 runners · €29,450 · Saturday, 4 July 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 5/1·6.00Race report
- 1stDancing Destiny (IRE)AI top pick · 56.5Chris Hayes·Joseph Patrick O'Brien5/1·6.00SP
- 2ndSarah's Choice (IRE)Shane Foley·Mrs John Harrington·beaten .75 lengths10/1·11.00SP
- 3rdOne Number (USA)Dylan Browne McMonagle·Joseph Patrick O'Brien·beaten 1.5 lengths11/2·6.50SP
Race time
1m 41.62s+4.32s vs std
Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 5.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way56.5/100 rating
Dancing Destiny
9.50Bet365
Place portion settles at 2.70 · 1/5 odds · 3 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Florida Bay
FLORIDA BAY, who broke his maiden readily last time, is the pick, with the form of his prior run — a promising third on his introduction — given a real boost since, as the pair who beat him that day have both gone on to win at the top level. There should be further improvement in him stepping up to a mile for the powerful A P O'Brien stable, with Dancing Destiny, well beaten by him last time but much better treated on today's weights, the chief danger. The unraced pair Sarah's Choice and Cedrela, both from smart families, plus Ranting Duke, are also worth a thought at bigger prices. Confidence is on the low side, but FLORIDA BAY is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Dancing Destiny
Chris Hayes · Joseph Patrick O'Brien · 2yo
Top-rated of 8
score 56.5 · +15.6 clear of next best (40.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong29d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight59averageLast 6: 1-3-4
- Ratings50% weight57averageOR 86 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight38below averageJoseph Patrick O'Brien: 8/52 winners last 14d (15%)
MarketBest price 9.50 (Bet365) · 3rd in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Naas 1m
full course data →Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.14).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.03
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.14
High (7–8)
IV 0.84
Today: Wo Wo Never (draw 4) and Sarah's Choice (draw 5) get the bias; Ranting Duke (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | J: Chris Hayes · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 3 2yo · F · b | 134 | 86 | 56.5 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 5 2yo · F · b | — | — | 20.5 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 3 | 2 | J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 2 2yo · C · b | 20 | — | 22.7 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Jack Cleary · T: A P O'Brien · draw 1 2yo · C · b | 31 | — | 35.3 | 4/6F·1.67 SP |
| 5 | 6 | J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar · draw 8 2yo · F · b | 5 | — | 19.5 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 6 | 3 | J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 4 2yo · C · b | 3 | — | 29.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 7 | 4 | J: Diego Lima · T: Diego Dias · draw 7 2yo · C · ch | 52 | — | 40.9 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Sean Davis · T: Robson De Aguiar · draw 6 2yo · F · b | — | — | 18.5 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:44 Naas?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Dancing Destiny, won the race (AI score 56.5).
What were the placings in the 15:44 Naas?
Top finishers: 1. Dancing Destiny (IRE) (6.00), 2. Sarah's Choice (IRE) (11.00), 3. One Number (USA) (6.50).
What was the winning time for the 15:44 Naas?
The winning time was 1m 41.62s, 4.32s slower than standard.
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