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RacingAlpha

15:00 Newbury

Ire-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 12 runners · £8,100 · Friday, 17 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Fuel The Jet (IRE)
    Neil Callan·Tom Clover
    9/2·5.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Cilician (IRE)AI top pick · 54.9
    Joe Leavy·Brian Meehan·beaten 0.2 lengths
    7/4F·2.75
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Rafe's da Man (GB)
    Pat Dobbs·Richard Hannon·beaten 1.25 lengths
    28/1·29.00
    SP
Race time
1m 26.03s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Fuel The Jet (IRE))

raced freely up with the pace early - driven along to challenge for the front 2f out - moved fractionally in front past 1f out - edged right soon after - stayed on comfortably to assert towards the finish

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.75 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Each-way28.0/100 rating
Force Of Light
4.60Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Why the model rates this top

Cilician

Joe Leavy · Brian Meehan · 2yo

Top-rated of 12
score 54.9 · +24.4 clear of next best (30.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    14d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Ratings50% weight
    60average
    OR 90 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Form20% weight
    52average
    Last 6: 2-0-2
  • Trainer20% weight
    23weak
    Brian Meehan: 1/11 winners last 14d (9%)
MarketBest price 4.33 (Unibet) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newbury 7f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–5)
IV 0.99
Mid (6–10)
IV 1.16
High (11–15)
IV 0.86

Today: Cilician (draw 10) and Arthurian (draw 8) get the bias; Grapple (draw 13) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 147 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
17
J: Neil Callan · T: Tom Clover · draw 7
2yo · C · b
5
21.0
9/2·5.50
SP
24
J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan · draw 10
2yo · G · ch
202
9054.9
7/4F·2.75
SP
312
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 4
2yo · C · ch
44
25.0
28/1·29.00
SP
43
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 2
2yo · C · b
63
22.3
10/1·11.00
SP
56
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 11
2yo · C · ch
28.0
100/30·4.33
SP
62
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 8
2yo · C · b
25.0
8/1·9.00
SP
75
2yo · G · b
20.0
125/1·126.00
SP
810
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Andrew Balding · draw 15
2yo · C · ch
64
27.3
22/1·23.00
SP
914
J: Georgia Dobie · T: Clive Cox · draw 5
2yo · C · b
23.5
33/1·34.00
SP
108
J: Jack Callan(3) · T: George Boughey · draw 3
2yo · C · b
26.5
16/1·17.00
SP
111
2yo · G · b
10
29.7
200/1·201.00
SP
129
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 13
2yo · G · b
30.5
28/1·29.00
SP
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 9
2yo · C · b
21.5
J: Tyler Heard · T: Richard Hannon · draw 14
2yo · G · b
21.0
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 1
2yo · C · b
24.0

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 15:00 Newbury on 17 July 2026?

Fuel The Jet (IRE) won the 15:00 Newbury at SP 5.50. Ridden by Neil Callan. Trained by Tom Clover.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:00 Newbury?

No — the AI top pick (Cilician) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 15:00 Newbury?

Top finishers: 1. Fuel The Jet (IRE) (5.50), 2. Cilician (IRE) (2.75), 3. Rafe's da Man (GB) (29.00).

What was the winning time for the 15:00 Newbury?

The winning time was 1m 26.03s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org