Who won the 16:30 Ayr on 20 July 2026?
Phantom Shadow (FR) won the 16:30 Ayr at SP 5.50. Ridden by Jason Hart. Trained by Ewan Whillans.
16:30 Ayr
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1m2f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 10 runners · £3,664 · Monday, 20 July 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 9/2·5.50Race report
- 1stPhantom Shadow (FR)AI top pick · 50.3Jason Hart·Ewan Whillans9/2·5.50SP
- 2ndFalcon Nine (GB)Sam James·Iain Jardine·beaten 4 lengths11/1·12.00SP
- 3rdSophiesticate (IRE)Shay Farmer·R Mike Smith·beaten 0.3 lengths10/1·11.00SP
Race time
2m 5.80s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Phantom Shadow (FR))
“settled in the pack - made smooth headway to reach the front-runners 3f out - hit the front 2f out - quickened clear inside the final furlong and was untroubled through the line”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way50.3/100 rating
Phantom Shadow
6.007Bet
Place portion settles at 2.00 · 1/5 odds · 3 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Falcon Nine
Four runners share the top rating of 65 in this red-hot renewal, and we side with Falcon Nine among them on a more progressive profile than his rivals. Taylormade Lad, Motawaared and Toy Soldier are the obvious dangers on the same figure, all with claims of their own on recent form. Braes Of Doune and Glasses Up are others who could feature, but confidence in this verdict is low given how tightly this field is rated. Falcon Nine is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Phantom Shadow
Jason Hart · Ewan Whillans · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 50.3 · +5.9 clear of next best (44.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong18d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight57averageLast 6: 8-2-3-5-2
- Trainer20% weight48below averageEwan Whillans: 3/16 winners last 14d (19%)
- Ratings50% weight39below averageOR 58
MarketBest price 6.00 (7Bet) · 2nd in the market of 10.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m2f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.76
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.06
High (9–11)
IV 1.20
Today: Phantom Shadow (draw 10) and Taylormade Lad (draw 11) get the bias; Sophiesticate (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 57 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | J: Jason Hart · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 10 3yo · G · ch | 82352 | 58 | 50.3 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Sam James · T: Iain Jardine · draw 5 6yo · G · chb | 77249 | 58 | 44.4 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 3 | 7 | J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: R Mike Smith · draw 4 7yo · M · b | 77633 | 51 | 42.6 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 4 | 6 | J: Clifford Lee · T: R Mike Smith · draw 2 11yo · G · ch | 356751 | 53 | 41.1 | 5/2F·3.50 SP |
| 5 | 1 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 6 4yo · G · b | 77656 | 60 | 38.3 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 6 | 9 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: R Mike Smith · draw 7 10yo · G · bp | 57853 | 48 | 36.8 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 7 | 2 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 11 4yo · G · bp | 93355 | 60 | 44.2 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: Lexie Clarkson(7) · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · draw 8 4yo · G · b | 004226 | 57 | 42.1 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 9 | 10 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 9 3yo · F · b | 852427 | 55 | 43.0 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 10 | 11 | J: Jared Huggan(7) · T: Gary Rutherford · draw 1 5yo · M · b | 239552 | 45 | 31.1 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 3 8yo · G · bp | 42566 | 57 | 36.3 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:30 Ayr?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Phantom Shadow, won the race (AI score 50.3).
What were the placings in the 16:30 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Phantom Shadow (FR) (5.50), 2. Falcon Nine (GB) (12.00), 3. Sophiesticate (IRE) (11.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:30 Ayr?
The winning time was 2m 5.80s.
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