Who won the 16:45 Nottingham on 21 July 2026?
Luna Celeste (IRE) won the 16:45 Nottingham at SP 8.50. Ridden by Saffie Osborne. Trained by Tom Clover.
16:45 Nottingham
Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap Stakes
1m½f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £5,496 · Tuesday, 21 July 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 3rdRace report
- 1stLuna Celeste (IRE)Saffie Osborne·Tom Clover15/2·8.50SP
- 2ndDistant Shore (GB)Ray Dawson·Roger Varian·beaten .5 lengths2/1F·3.00SP
- 3rdPorth Eilian (GB)AI top pick · 62.8Callum Rodriguez·Edward Bethell·beaten 4 lengths7/2·4.50SP
Race time
1m 46.53s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Luna Celeste (IRE))
“led from the start - pushed along over 1f out - stayed on strongly to the line”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Distant Shore
Distant Shore is our selection, preferred to the identically-rated Darzah on a more progressive profile and a clock reading that backs up the form. Darzah, Great Mates and Porth Eilian all pose a threat in a tightly-matched field where little separates the principals on our figures. Confidence is low given how close this looks on paper, but the profile and time figures tip it toward Distant Shore.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Porth Eilian
Callum Rodriguez · Edward Bethell · 3yo
Top-rated of 5
score 62.8 · +1.4 clear of next best (61.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong17d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight77strongLast 6: 5-4-1-3-1
- Trainer20% weight55averageEdward Bethell: 7/32 winners last 14d (22%)
- Ratings50% weight53averageOR 79
MarketBest price 5.70 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 5.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Nottingham 1m½f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–2)
IV 0.91
Mid (3–4)
IV 0.99
High (5–5)
IV 1.11
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 196 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Tom Clover · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 2212 | 75 | 61.4 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 5 3yo · F · chh | 1352 | 79 | 54.3 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Edward Bethell · draw 2 3yo · F · b | 54131 | 79 | 62.8 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti · draw 4 4yo · F · bh | 12461 | 77 | 58.6 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 5181 | 81 | 56.7 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 Nottingham?
No — the AI top pick (Porth Eilian) finished 3.
What were the placings in the 16:45 Nottingham?
Top finishers: 1. Luna Celeste (IRE) (8.50), 2. Distant Shore (GB) (3.00), 3. Porth Eilian (GB) (4.50).
What was the winning time for the 16:45 Nottingham?
The winning time was 1m 46.53s.
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