14:25 York

Feature

Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)

2m½f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Soft · 8 runners · £141,775 · Friday, 21 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (9 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Columbus

No. 5 · score 69.5 · +1.5 clear of next best · best 12/1·13.50

Best value vs consensus

Columbus (also top rated)

13.5·13.50 Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair (consensus 12.94)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way69.5/100 rating

Columbus

13.50Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Columbus

Colin Keane · W P Mullins · 5yo

Top-rated of 9

score 69.5 · +1.5 clear of next best (68.0)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
20d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
95very strong
W P Mullins: 11/29 winners last 14d (38%)
Ratings50% weight
71strong
OR 107
Form20% weight
24weak
Last 6: 4-5-3-6-0

MarketBest price 13.50 (Betfair Exchange) · 7th in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
5Columbus 7Illinois
Prominent(1)
Carmers
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
6French Master
Unknown(5)
1Caballo De Mar 2Al Nayyir 3Amiloc 8Mount Atlas 9Quickthorn

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 2m½f

full course data →

Sample too small to call at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 1.16

Mid (4–6)

IV 0.57

High (7–9)

IV 1.21

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 35 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	ColumbusPick J: Colin Keane · T: W P Mullins · draw 3 · combo 1/5 (20%) 5yo · G · bay f.DOnly runner	45360	9-05	107	—	—	69.5	12/1·12.94	13.5·13.50 Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange13.5·13.50Matchbook13.5·13.50Smarkets13·13.00Bet36511/1·12.00 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 talkSPORT BET10/1·11.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Midnite17/2·9.50 Star Sports8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00
8	Mount Atlas J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · draw 8 · combo 9/51 (18%) 5yo · G · bC	42231	9-05	112	—	—	68.0	9/1·10.35	8/1·9.00 talkSPORT BET · -13% vs fair All 29 books ▾ talkSPORT BET8/1·9.00 Bet36515/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20Matchbook8.2·8.207Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 BresBet7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00William Hill7/1·8.00Smarkets8·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50
3	Amiloc J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 6 · combo 14/81 (17%) 4yo · G · b	2466U	9-05	115	—	—	66.4	9/2·5.60	4.8·4.80 Smarkets · -14% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets4.8·4.80Matchbook4.8·4.80Betfair Exchange4.8·4.80 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 Betfred10/3·4.33 BresBet10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00Virgin Bet11/4·3.75Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 talkSPORT BET5/2·3.50
7	Illinois J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien · draw 4 · combo 31/91 (34%) 5yo · C · b3lb below win mark	36155	9-05	108	—	—	66.4	10/1·11.00	9/1·10.00 talkSPORT BET · -9% vs fair All 29 books ▾ talkSPORT BET9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50Smarkets9.2·9.20Matchbook9.2·9.20Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00William Hill8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80 Midnite15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Betfred7/1·8.00
6	French Master J: James Doyle · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 7 · combo 2/10 (20%) 5yo · G · bbOnly pairing	03524	9-05	108	—	—	66.0	16/1·16.82	16·16.00 Smarkets · -5% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets16·16.00Matchbook16·16.00Betfair Exchange16·16.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 talkSPORT BET12/1·13.00
1	Caballo De Mar J: Oisin Murphy · T: George Scott · draw 1 · combo 1/13 (8%) 5yo · G · bp	72210	9-08	115	—	—	65.1	3/1·3.88	3.25·3.25 Smarkets · -16% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets3.25·3.25Betfair Exchange3.15·3.15Matchbook3.15·3.157Bet2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 BetMGM2/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 BresBet2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 SmarketsSBK2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 Unibet2/1·3.00 William Hill2/1·3.00 talkSPORT BET2/1·3.00 Midnite15/8·2.88Virgin Bet15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Paddy Power15/8·2.88
2	Al Nayyir J: William Buick · T: Tom Clover · draw 5 8yo · G · bpOnly runner	31327	9-05	113	—	—	63.2	10/1·11.00	9.8·9.80 Betfair Exchange · -11% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80Smarkets9.6·9.60Matchbook9.6·9.60talkSPORT BET17/2·9.50 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Bet3657/1·8.00
9	Quickthorn J: Tom Marquand · T: Hughie Morrison · draw 2 9yo · G · bOnly runner	65461	9-05	108	—	—	57.6	33/1·33.64	32·32.00 Smarkets · -5% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets32·32.00Midnite28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00Matchbook28·28.007Bet25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00William Hill25/1·26.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 talkSPORT BET20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange19·19.00
—	Carmers J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey · draw 9 · combo 10/69 (14%) 4yo · C · btvFT TVOn last winning markDOnly runner	25516	9-05	112	—	—	53.5	15/2·8.41	7·7.00 Matchbook · -17% vs fair All 7 books ▾ Matchbook7·7.00Star Sports11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 BetMGM5/1·6.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 7–29 bookmakers per horse with the 29% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)?

The Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) is off at 14:25 on 21 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:25 York?

2m½f, Class 1, Flat, 8 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:25 York?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:25 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Columbus (score 69.5, best price 13.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:25 York?

The market favourite is Caballo De Mar at a best price of 3.25. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Columbus.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org