18+ • Bet Responsibly • Racing Alpha does not accept betsBeGambleAware.org
RacingAlpha

14:20 Ascot

Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3)

1m · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 8 runners · £53,874 · Saturday, 25 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 4th
  1. 1st
    Kon Tiki (GB)
    Ryan Moore·Jane Chapple-Hyam
    7/2·4.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Esna (IRE)
    Mickael Barzalona·Brian Meehan·beaten 1.25 lengths
    40/1·41.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Skydance (GB)
    Oisin Murphy·W McCreery·beaten 1 length
    8/1·9.00
    SP
Race time
1m 40.54s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Kon Tiki (GB))

“Raced close up in second before going to the front with two furlongs left under pressure - pulled clear passing the furlong marker when driven and kept finding more to the line”

AI top-rated Touleen (score 65.9) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.83 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Kon Tiki

Kon Tiki tops our figures on 113, narrowly ahead of Touleen on 111, and arrives full of running having won two of her last five starts. Touleen, Arisaig and Sukanya make up the strongest opposition, each within a handful of pounds on our figures. Confidence is low in this tight Ascot contest, but Kon Tiki's rating edge makes her the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Touleen

William Buick · Owen Burrows · 3yo

Top-rated of 8
score 65.9 · +2.6 clear of next best (63.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    36d since last run (fresh)
  • Ratings50% weight
    75strong
    OR 112 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Form20% weight
    58average
    Last 6: 1-5-2-6-2
  • Trainer20% weight
    43small sample (n=6)
    Owen Burrows: 1/6 winners last 14d (17%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Ascot 1m

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–3)
IV 0.87
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.98
High (7–8)
IV 1.16

Today: Touleen (draw 7) and Arisaig (draw 8) get the bias; Kon Tiki (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 130 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
13
Kon Tiki
J: Ryan Moore · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam · draw 2
4yo · F · ch
11724
10560.8
7/2·4.50
SP
26
Esna
J: Mickael Barzalona · T: Brian Meehan · draw 5
3yo · F · b
14410
10359.0
40/1·41.00
SP
37
Skydance
J: Oisin Murphy · T: W McCreery · draw 3
3yo · F · b
32651
10558.5
8/1·9.00
SP
48
Touleen
J: William Buick · T: Owen Burrows · draw 7
3yo · F · b
15262
11265.9
5/6F·1.83
SP
54
Pina Sonata
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Fanshawe · draw 4
4yo · F · b
10617
10363.3
11/1·12.00
SP
65
Sukanya
J: Tom Marquand · T: Jack Channon · draw 6
3yo · F · b
29106
10455.2
20/1·21.00
SP
71
Arisaig
J: Jamie Spencer · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 8
5yo · M · ch
02483
10155.1
17/2·9.50
SP
82
Cheshire Dancer
J: Colin Keane · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 1
5yo · M · grp
70580
9548.1
40/1·41.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:20 Ascot on 25 July 2026?

Kon Tiki (GB) won the 14:20 Ascot at SP 4.50. Ridden by Ryan Moore. Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:20 Ascot?

No — the AI top pick (Touleen) finished 4.

What were the placings in the 14:20 Ascot?

Top finishers: 1. Kon Tiki (GB) (4.50), 2. Esna (IRE) (41.00), 3. Skydance (GB) (9.00).

What was the winning time for the 14:20 Ascot?

The winning time was 1m 40.54s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org