Who won the 15:15 Carlisle on 11 August 2026?
Rogue Passion (IRE) won the 15:15 Carlisle at SP 1.30. Ridden by Oisin Orr. Trained by Edward Bethell.
15:15 Carlisle
National Racehorse Week 2026 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good · 5 runners · £7,020 · Tuesday, 11 August 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 30/100F·1.30Race report
- 1stRogue Passion (IRE)AI top pick · 60.6Oisin Orr·Edward Bethell30/100F·1.30SP
- 2ndLizzie Bennet (GB)Tom Eaves·Kevin Ryan·beaten 2.5 lengths25/1·26.00SP
- 3rdGirl Scout (GB)Clifford Lee·K. R. Burke·beaten 2.75 lengths3/1·4.00SP
Race time
1m 28.42s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Rogue Passion (IRE))
“Pulled hard early - close up with the pace - eased ahead by three furlongs out - driven approaching final furlong - opened up gap late and eased to the line”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.30 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Why the model rates this top
Rogue Passion
Oisin Orr · Edward Bethell · 2yo
Top-rated of 5
score 60.6 · +35.2 clear of next best (25.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong33d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight67strongLast 6: 4-2
- Ratings50% weight55averageOR 83 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight55averageEdward Bethell: 6/27 winners last 14d (22%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–2)
IV 1.00
Mid (3–4)
IV 0.83
High (5–5)
IV 1.16
Today: Shaqra Queen (draw 5) gets the bias; Rogue Passion (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell · draw 4 2yo · F · b | 42 | 83 | 60.6 | 30/100F·1.30 SP |
| 2 | 2 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 3 2yo · F · gr | — | — | 18.5 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke · draw 1 2yo · F · b | 5 | — | 19.5 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 4 | 4 | J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 2yo · F · b | 6 | — | 21.0 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 2 2yo · F · ch | 02 | — | 25.4 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:15 Carlisle?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Rogue Passion, won the race (AI score 60.6).
What were the placings in the 15:15 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Rogue Passion (IRE) (1.30), 2. Lizzie Bennet (GB) (26.00), 3. Girl Scout (GB) (4.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:15 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 28.42s.
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