Who won the 16:15 Ayr on 10 August 2026?
Naturalia (GB) won the 16:15 Ayr at SP 4.00. Ridden by Paul Mulrennan. Trained by Donald Whillans.
16:15 Ayr
Ladbrokes 'Free Rewards With Instant Spins' Handicap Stakes (Div I)
1m2f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 12 runners · £3,664 · Monday, 10 August 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 7thRace report
- 1stNaturalia (GB)Paul Mulrennan·Donald Whillans3/1F·4.00SP
- 2ndRecobella (FR)Jack Nicholls·Philip Kirby·beaten 0.2 lengths13/2·7.50SP
- 3rdIdyllic (GB)Paula Muir·Wilf Storey·beaten .5 lengths5/1·6.00SP
Race time
2m 10.09s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Naturalia (GB))
“Tracked front group wide - hit front two out and driven on - shown the whip inside final furlong - edged clear late to prevail”
AI top-rated Lesrico (score 46.4) finished 7th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Lesrico
Lesrico heads this 12-runner Class 6 field at Ayr on good ground, rated narrowly ahead of the chasing pair Ravenscraig Castle and King Chaos, with She's Got Bottle a further threat in behind. The mile-and-a-quarter trip on good ground looks straightforward enough on paper, though in a competitive lower-tier heat the small edge in the ratings offers no guarantees. **Lesrico** is our selection, though this is a genuinely open contest.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Lesrico
Mark Winn · Lisa Williamson · 6yo
Top-rated of 12
score 46.4 · +0.9 clear of next best (45.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong58d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight49below averageLast 6: 2-1-5-2-8
- Ratings50% weight43below averageOR 65 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight33small sample (n=8)Lisa Williamson: 1/8 winners last 14d (13%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m2f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.76
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.06
High (9–12)
IV 1.20
Today: Idyllic (draw 12) and Naturalia (draw 10) get the bias; Lesrico (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 57 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Donald Whillans · draw 10 5yo · M · b | 622244 | 62 | 42.3 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Philip Kirby · draw 2 5yo · M · ch | 35251 | 56 | 40.1 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 3 | 5 | J: Paula Muir(3) · T: Wilf Storey · draw 12 5yo · M · b | 66540 | 59 | 44.1 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 4 | 9 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 11 4yo · G · bt | 09959 | 55 | 36.2 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 5 | 6 | J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 3 6yo · M · b | 798543 | 59 | 38.9 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 6 | 12 | J: Greg Fairley · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 8 3yo · G · bp | 54990 | 55 | 41.5 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 7 | 1 | J: Mark Winn · T: Lisa Williamson · draw 4 6yo · G · bh | 21528 | 65 | 46.4 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 8 | 11 | J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 6 3yo · F · bbFT B | 69536 | 59 | 42.3 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 9 | 7 | J: Cara Tuke(7) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 5 8yo · G · grb | 64854 | 57 | 45.5 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 10 | 2 | J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 7 5yo · G · gr | 24178 | 64 | 36.0 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 11 | 4 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Patrick Neville · draw 9 4yo · G · bpFT P | 97398 | 62 | 33.0 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| PU | 10 | J: Barry McHugh · T: Lizzie Quinlan · draw 1 7yo · M · b | 00607 | 55 | 24.6 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:15 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Lesrico) finished 7.
What were the placings in the 16:15 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Naturalia (GB) (4.00), 2. Recobella (FR) (7.50), 3. Idyllic (GB) (6.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:15 Ayr?
The winning time was 2m 10.09s.
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