14:38 Carlisle

Kingmoor Park Properties Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 3 runners · £6,480 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick was a non-runner

1st
Green Area (GB)
Connor Beasley·Charlie Johnston
15/8·2.88
SP
2nd
Peace Belle (GB)
Andrew Mullen·Jennie Candlish·beaten 6 lengths
4/9F·1.44
SP
3rd
Lazy In Red (GB)
Oisin McSweeney·Donald Whillans·beaten 10 lengths
28/1·29.00
SP

Race time

2m 29.82s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Green Area (GB))

“Led from the outset - controlled the tempo and stretched the lead before halfway - eased across before pushing on approaching the final two furlongs - soon in command - finished off strongly in the closing stages - comfortably home”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.88 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Aleatrix

Paul Mulrennan · Ralph Beckett · 3yo

Top-rated of 3

score 68.1 · +31.6 clear of next best (36.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
85very strong
Last 6: 1-2
Trainer20% weight
60average
Ralph Beckett: 8/33 winners last 14d (24%)
Ratings50% weight
58average
OR 87 — highest combined rating in the field

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Carlisle 1m3f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.31).

Low (1–2)

IV 1.31

Mid (3–3)

IV 0.89

High (4–4)

IV 0.75

Today: Peace Belle (draw 2) and Lazy In Red (draw 1) get the bias; Aleatrix (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 52 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	3	Green Area J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 3 3yo · F · b	33	9-02	—	—	—	28.0	15/8·2.88 SP
2	1	Peace Belle J: Andrew Mullen · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 2 5yo · M · b	44	9-10	—	—	—	36.5	4/9F·1.44 SP
3	4	Lazy In Red J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Donald Whillans · draw 1 3yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	35.0	28/1·29.00 SP
—	—	Aleatrix J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 4 3yo · F · b	12	9-09	87	—	—	68.1	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:38 Carlisle on 19 August 2026?

Green Area (GB) won the 14:38 Carlisle at SP 2.88. Ridden by Connor Beasley. Trained by Charlie Johnston.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:38 Carlisle?

No — the AI top pick (Aleatrix) was a non-runner or unplaced.

What were the placings in the 14:38 Carlisle?

Top finishers: 1. Green Area (GB) (2.88), 2. Peace Belle (GB) (1.44), 3. Lazy In Red (GB) (29.00).

What was the winning time for the 14:38 Carlisle?

The winning time was 2m 29.82s.

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