14:38 Carlisle

Off in 42m

Kingmoor Park Properties Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 3 runners · £6,480 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

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E/W terms4 runners — win only, no each-way offered· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Aleatrix

score 68.1 · +31.6 clear of next best · best 4/7·1.57

Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Aleatrix

Paul Mulrennan · Ralph Beckett · 3yo

Top-rated of 4

score 68.1 · +31.6 clear of next best (36.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
85very strong
Last 6: 1-2
Trainer20% weight
60average
Ralph Beckett: 8/33 winners last 14d (24%)
Ratings50% weight
58average
OR 87 — highest combined rating in the field

MarketBest price 1.57 (Betfair Sportsbook) · 2nd in the market of 4.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
Aleatrix
Prominent(1)
3Green Area
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
1Peace Belle
Unknown(1)
4Lazy In Red

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Carlisle 1m3f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.31).

Low (1–2)

IV 1.31

Mid (3–3)

IV 0.89

High (4–4)

IV 0.75

Today: Peace Belle (draw 2) and Lazy In Red (draw 1) get the bias; Aleatrix (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 52 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Best
—	AleatrixPick J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 4 3yo · F · bOnly runner	12	9-09	87	—	—	68.1	4/7·1.57 Betfair Sportsbook All 2 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook4/7·1.57Paddy Power4/7·1.57
1	Peace Belle J: Andrew Mullen · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 2 5yo · M · bClass dropOnly runner	44	9-10	—	—	—	36.5	1.52·1.52 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange1.52·1.52Matchbook1.52·1.52Smarkets1.51·1.51Ladbrokes4/9·1.44 Betfred4/9·1.44 Betano4/9·1.44 talkSPORT BET4/9·1.44 Coral4/9·1.44 Unibet4/9·1.44 William Hill4/9·1.44 Bet Victor4/9·1.44 Bet3654/9·1.44 Quinn Bet4/9·1.44 SmarketsSBK4/9·1.44 Star Sports4/9·1.44 Dragon Bet2/5·1.40 10 Bet2/5·1.40 BresBet2/5·1.40 LiveScore Bet2/5·1.40 Midnite2/5·1.40Virgin Bet2/5·1.407Bet2/5·1.40 BetMGM2/5·1.40 BetWright2/5·1.40 SportingIndex2/5·1.40 Spreadex2/5·1.40 Boyle Sports4/11·1.36 BetTom4/11·1.36Betfair Sportsbook1/3·1.33Paddy Power1/3·1.33
4	Lazy In Red J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Donald Whillans · draw 1 3yo · F · bOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	35.0	55·55.00 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook55·55.00Smarkets48·48.00Betfair Exchange48·48.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 7Bet35/1·36.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00William Hill33/1·34.00 talkSPORT BET33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00
3	Green Area J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 3 · combo 6/56 (11%) 3yo · F · bOnly runner	33	9-02	—	—	—	28.0	3.05·3.05 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.05·3.05Smarkets3.05·3.05Matchbook3.05·3.05BetTom2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00William Hill2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 Unibet2/1·3.00 SmarketsSBK2/1·3.00 10 Bet15/8·2.88 Paddy Power15/8·2.88 BetMGM15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 Dragon Bet15/8·2.88 SportingIndex15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88 Midnite15/8·2.88 Quinn Bet15/8·2.88 Betfred7/4·2.75Betfair Sportsbook7/4·2.75BresBet7/4·2.75 7Bet7/4·2.75 Bet Victor13/8·2.63 Betano13/8·2.63 talkSPORT BET13/8·2.63 Boyle Sports13/8·2.63

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Kingmoor Park Properties Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)?

The Kingmoor Park Properties Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) is off at 14:38 on 19 August 2026 at Carlisle (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:38 Carlisle?

1m3f, Class 3, Flat, 3 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:38 Carlisle?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:38 Carlisle?

The AI top-rated runner is Aleatrix (score 68.1, best price 1.57). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:38 Carlisle?

The market favourite is Peace Belle at a best price of 1.52. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Aleatrix.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org