15:13 Carlisle

Off in 1h 23m

North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div I)

7f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 10 runners · £3,402 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Runninman

No. 10 · score 49.0 · +2.3 clear of next best · best 40/1·46.00

Best value vs consensus

Runninman (also top rated)

46·46.00 Matchbook · +15% vs fair (consensus 39.90)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way46.6/100 rating

Renewable Dream

11.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Fate's GambitDiffers from our pick

Fate's Gambit heads this Class 6 seven-furlong contest at Carlisle on good ground carrying the strongest credentials in the field, sitting narrowly ahead of the chasing pack on form and holding a modest edge over the principal dangers. Why Because and Renewable Dream are the most likely to test our selection, both rated 64 and capable of making this competitive, while Zous Juice at 63 warrants respect in a race where the margins are not enormous. That said, Fate's Gambit's superiority over this field looks genuine enough to see him through, and he is the pick here.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Runninman

Aiden Brookes · Donald Whillans · 3yo

Top-rated of 10

score 49.0 · +2.3 clear of next best (46.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=1)
Donald Whillans: 1/1 winners last 14d (100%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
30weak
OR 45
Form20% weight
20weak
Last 6: 3-6-8-7-4-0

MarketBest price 46.00 (Matchbook) · 9th in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
9Long Shot
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(1)
6Blairtum Night
Hold-up / closers(4)
1Why Because 7April Diamond 8Rajawail 10Runninman
Unknown(4)
2Renewable Dream 3Reenie's Dream 4Fate's Gambit 5Zous Juice

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Carlisle 7f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–4)

IV 1.00

Mid (5–7)

IV 0.83

High (8–10)

IV 1.16

Today: Renewable Dream (draw 9) and Fate's Gambit (draw 8) get the bias; Runninman (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
10	RunninmanPick J: Aiden Brookes · T: Donald Whillans · draw 5 3yo · G · bpOnly pairing	368740	8-07	45	—	—	49.0	40/1·39.90	46·46.00 Matchbook · +15% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook46·46.00Smarkets42·42.007Bet35/1·36.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 talkSPORT BET33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Bet Victor33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00Betfair Exchange30·30.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00
2	Renewable Dream J: Gianluca Sanna(5) · T: John Wainwright · draw 9 · combo 0/9 (0%) 4yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	39098	9-11	59	—	—	46.6	12/1·12.91	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -11% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Coral10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00Smarkets11·11.00Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Betfair Exchange11·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 10 Bet10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00William Hill10/1·11.00 talkSPORT BET10/1·11.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50
4	Fate's Gambit J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr · draw 8 · combo 6/91 (7%) 3yo · G · bOnly runner	355093	9-07	60	—	—	42.2	7/1·8.22	10.5·10.50 Betfair Exchange · +28% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50Matchbook10.5·10.50Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Midnite13/2·7.50 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00talkSPORT BET6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50
6	Blairtum Night J: David Allan · T: Linda Perratt · draw 7 · combo 0/7 (0%) 4yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	864	9-05	53	—	—	39.8	22/1·22.30	25·25.00 Matchbook · +12% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook25·25.00Smarkets22·22.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 talkSPORT BET20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange21·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 BresBet20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 10 Bet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00William Hill18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00
7	April Diamond J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 6 · combo 13/82 (16%) 5yo · M · bOnly runner	765206	9-04	52	—	—	37.8	9/1·9.98	9.2·9.20 Betfair Exchange · -8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20Smarkets9.2·9.20Matchbook9.2·9.20Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 talkSPORT BET8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00William Hill8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Midnite15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.5010 Bet15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 BetMGM7/1·8.00
9	Long Shot J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 · combo 2/15 (13%) 3yo · G · bp	242404	8-09	48	—	—	37.1	13/2·7.63	7·7.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook7·7.00Smarkets6.8·6.80Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50William Hill11/2·6.50 talkSPORT BET11/2·6.50 Betfred5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00
1	Why Because J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley · draw 1 · combo 4/44 (9%) 4yo · F · chhOnly runner	56475	9-12	60	—	—	35.5	7/1·8.22	9.4·9.40 Betfair Exchange · +14% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40Smarkets9.4·9.40Matchbook9.2·9.20SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 Midnite6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00William Hill6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 talkSPORT BET6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00BetTom6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00
5	Zous Juice J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 10 · combo 7/74 (9%) 5yo · G · b	9490	9-06	54	—	—	33.3	7/1·8.22	7.6·7.60 Betfair Exchange · -7% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.6·7.60Matchbook7.6·7.60Smarkets7.4·7.40Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 talkSPORT BET6/1·7.00 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00
3	Reenie's Dream J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Bryan Smart · draw 3 · combo 1/23 (4%) 4yo · F · bFirst after wind opOnly runner	09948	9-07	55	—	—	28.3	3/1·4.11	3.65·3.65 Matchbook · -11% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook3.65·3.65Betfair Exchange3.65·3.65Smarkets3.6·3.60William Hill5/2·3.50 talkSPORT BET5/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50 7Bet5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50 Betano5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 Bet Victor5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 BetMGM5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 BetWright12/5·3.40 Dragon Bet12/5·3.40 BresBet12/5·3.40 SportingIndex9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.25Spreadex9/4·3.25 10 Bet2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00
8	Rajawail J: Faye McManoman · T: Brian Rothwell · draw 2 · combo 1/15 (7%) 6yo · M · btbOnly rideOnly runner	750607	8-12	45	—	—	24.3	80/1·78.64	110·110.00 Matchbook · +40% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook110·110.00Betfair Exchange95·95.00Smarkets95·95.00SmarketsSBK80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 talkSPORT BET66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Bet Victor66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 BresBet60/1·61.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 17% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div I)?

The North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div I) is off at 15:13 on 19 August 2026 at Carlisle (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:13 Carlisle?

7f, Class 6, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:13 Carlisle?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:13 Carlisle?

The AI top-rated runner is Runninman (score 49.0, best price 46.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:13 Carlisle?

The market favourite is Reenie's Dream at a best price of 3.65. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Runninman.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org