16:20 Carlisle

David Allen IT Solutions Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 10 runners · £5,496 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (12 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Native Instinct

No. 8 · score 64.6 · +10.7 clear of next best · best 5/1·5.80

Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way64.6/100 rating

Native Instinct

5.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Lord BertieDiffers from our pick

Lord Bertie heads this twelve-runner Class 4 contest at Carlisle on a good surface with a clear edge over his rivals, sitting five pounds clear of Misunderstood and six ahead of Son, which represents a meaningful advantage at this level over seven furlongs. Misunderstood and Son are the most likely threats, with Hunky Dory also respected if the pace suits, though none of them look capable of bridging that gap on current form. Lord Bertie is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Native Instinct

Sam James · Edward Bethell · 4yo

Top-rated of 12

score 64.6 · +10.7 clear of next best (53.9)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
95very strong
Edward Bethell: 9/24 winners last 14d (38%)
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
50d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
59average
Last 6: 5-6-2-6-1
Ratings50% weight
51average
OR 76

MarketBest price 5.80 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 3 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Front-runners(3)
8Native Instinct 9Lord Capulet 10Havana Prince
Prominent(5)
1Hunky Dory 3King Of Fury 4Count Palatine 7Son 11Golden Strike
Mid-division(1)
Commander Of Life
Hold-up / closers(1)
2Misunderstood
Unknown(2)
12Vince Lombardi Lord Bertie

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Carlisle 7f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–4)

IV 1.00

Mid (5–8)

IV 0.83

High (9–12)

IV 1.16

Today: Commander Of Life (draw 10) and Misunderstood (draw 11) get the bias; King Of Fury (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
8	Native InstinctPick J: Sam James · T: Edward Bethell · draw 2 4yo · G · bDOnly runner	56261	9-05	76	—	—	64.6	6/1·7.22	5.8·5.80 Matchbook · -20% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook5.8·5.80Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70Smarkets5.7·5.70Virgin Bet4/1·5.007Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Bet3654/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 talkSPORT BET4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BresBet4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00BetWright4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 10 Bet10/3·4.33
3	King Of Fury J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 5 · combo 8/85 (9%) 6yo · G · chD	654711	9-08	79	—	—	53.9	18/1·18.06	15·15.00 Matchbook · -17% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook15·15.00Smarkets14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14·14.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00 talkSPORT BET12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 BresBet11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00
11	Golden Strike J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 7 · combo 2/42 (5%) 5yo · G · chvD	220175	9-03	74	—	—	53.6	11/2·6.50	5·5.00 Betfair Exchange · -23% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5·5.00Matchbook5·5.00Smarkets4.9·4.90Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50BresBet10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20
1	Hunky Dory J: Paddy Bradley · T: Linda Perratt · draw 6 4yo · G · chpOnly pairing	551863	9-09	80	—	—	52.6	40/1·37.57	38·38.00 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook38·38.00Smarkets36·36.00Betfair Exchange34·34.00 SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Unibet20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00
—	Commander Of Life J: Ryan Kavanagh(3) · T: Jessica Macey · draw 10 5yo · G · bDOnly rideOnly runner	355421	9-07	78	—	—	49.1	11/1·12.28	9.8·9.80 Betfair Exchange · -20% vs fair All 18 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80 Star Sports8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power7/1·8.00Matchbook3.65·3.65Unibet0.0
9	Lord Capulet J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 3 · combo 4/70 (6%) 4yo · G · b	011236	9-05	76	—	—	48.1	20/1·21.67	17.5·17.50 Matchbook · -19% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook17.5·17.50Smarkets16.5·16.50Betfair Exchange16.5·16.50 SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 Betano14/1·15.00 talkSPORT BET14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 BresBet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00SportingIndex14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00BetWright14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00
2	Misunderstood J: Paul Mulrennan · T: David O'Meara · draw 11 4yo · G · bhOnly pairing	576774	9-08	79	—	—	46.3	7/1·7.95	6.4·6.40 Matchbook · -19% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook6.4·6.40Smarkets6.2·6.20Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20Virgin Bet5/1·6.00BresBet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Midnite9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 talkSPORT BET9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.5010 Bet9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00
—	Lord Bertie J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 12 · combo 8/71 (11%) 6yo · G · bhOnly ride	60069	9-07	78	—	—	45.7	12/1·13.00	12.5·12.50 Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair All 20 books ▾ Betfair Exchange12.5·12.50Matchbook12.5·12.50Bet3658/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 10 Bet15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Betfred7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Unibet0.0
10	Havana Prince J: David Nolan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · draw 9 · combo 2/17 (12%) 5yo · G · bp	63100	9-04	75	—	—	43.9	25/1·27.45	26·26.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook26·26.00Betfair Exchange24·24.00Smarkets23·23.00Bet36520/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 BresBet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00talkSPORT BET18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.0010 Bet16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Unibet14/1·15.00
7	Son J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 · combo 20/199 (10%) 5yo · G · b	973406	9-06	77	—	—	43.6	5/1·5.78	4.6·4.60 Betfair Exchange · -20% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.6·4.60Matchbook4.6·4.60Smarkets4.5·4.50SmarketsSBK10/3·4.33 10 Bet3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00Coral3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 talkSPORT BET3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00BresBet3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 7Bet3/1·4.00 William Hill11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75
4	Count Palatine J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 8 · combo 4/38 (11%) 5yo · G · bOnly pairing	00306	9-07	78	—	—	41.2	14/1·14.45	13.5·13.50 Smarkets · -7% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Smarkets13.5·13.50Matchbook13.5·13.50Betfair Exchange13·13.00 SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Coral9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 talkSPORT BET9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Unibet17/2·9.50 7Bet17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 BresBet17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50
12	Vince Lombardi J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Seb Spencer · draw 1 · combo 2/13 (15%) 7yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	22510	9-01	72	—	—	38.1	66/1·59.24	100·100.00 Matchbook · +69% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook100·100.00Smarkets100·100.00SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 Betfair Exchange60·60.00 Bet36550/1·51.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 talkSPORT BET40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 BresBet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power35/1·36.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 17–30 bookmakers per horse with the 45% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the David Allen IT Solutions Handicap Stakes?

The David Allen IT Solutions Handicap Stakes is off at 16:20 on 19 August 2026 at Carlisle (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:20 Carlisle?

7f, Class 4, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:20 Carlisle?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:20 Carlisle?

The AI top-rated runner is Native Instinct (score 64.6, best price 5.80). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:20 Carlisle?

The market favourite is Son at a best price of 4.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Native Instinct.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org