Who won the 16:20 Carlisle on 19 August 2026?
Count Palatine (IRE) won the 16:20 Carlisle at SP 9.50. Ridden by Sean Kirrane. Trained by Michael Dods.
16:20 Carlisle
David Allen IT Solutions Handicap Stakes
7f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 10 runners · £5,496 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stCount Palatine (IRE)Sean Kirrane·Michael Dods17/2·9.50SP
- 2ndSon (GB)David Allan·Tim Easterby·beaten 0.1 lengths100/30J·4.33SP
- 3rdGolden Strike (IRE)Ethan Tindall·Richard & Peter Fahey·beaten 2.25 lengths7/2·4.50SP
Race time
1m 28.38s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Count Palatine (IRE))
“Settled in the pack early - urged forward with two furlongs remaining - shifted through and gained ground swiftly inside the final furlong - hit the front close home and edged home under pressure”
AI top-rated Native Instinct (score 64.6) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.33 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Lord Bertie
Lord Bertie heads this twelve-runner Class 4 contest at Carlisle on a good surface with a clear edge over his rivals, sitting five pounds clear of Misunderstood and six ahead of Son, which represents a meaningful advantage at this level over seven furlongs. Misunderstood and Son are the most likely threats, with Hunky Dory also respected if the pace suits, though none of them look capable of bridging that gap on current form. Lord Bertie is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Native Instinct
Sam James · Edward Bethell · 4yo
Top-rated of 10
score 64.6 · +10.7 clear of next best (53.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight95very strongEdward Bethell: 9/24 winners last 14d (38%)
- Freshness10% weight85very strong50d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight59averageLast 6: 5-6-2-6-1
- Ratings50% weight51averageOR 76
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–4)
IV 1.00
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.83
High (9–12)
IV 1.16
Today: Commander Of Life (draw 10) and Misunderstood (draw 11) get the bias; King Of Fury (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 8 5yo · G · b | 00306 | 78 | 41.2 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 2 | 7 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 5yo · G · b | 973406 | 77 | 43.6 | 100/30J·4.33 SP |
| 3 | 11 | J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 7 5yo · G · chv | 220175 | 74 | 53.6 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 4 | 8 | J: Sam James · T: Edward Bethell · draw 2 4yo · G · b | 56261 | 76 | 64.6 | 100/30J·4.33 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: David O'Meara · draw 11 4yo · G · bh | 576774 | 79 | 46.3 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Paddy Bradley · T: Linda Perratt · draw 6 4yo · G · chp | 551863 | 80 | 52.6 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 7 | 12 | J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Seb Spencer · draw 1 7yo · G · b | 22510 | 72 | 38.1 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 8 | 10 | J: David Nolan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · draw 9 5yo · G · bp | 63100 | 75 | 43.9 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 9 | 3 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 5 6yo · G · ch | 654711 | 79 | 53.9 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 10 | 9 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 011236 | 76 | 48.1 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 12 6yo · G · bh | 60069 | 78 | 45.7 | — |
| — | — | J: Ryan Kavanagh(3) · T: Jessica Macey · draw 10 5yo · G · b | 355421 | 78 | 49.1 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:20 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Native Instinct) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 16:20 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Count Palatine (IRE) (9.50), 2. Son (GB) (4.33), 3. Golden Strike (IRE) (4.50).
What was the winning time for the 16:20 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 28.38s.
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