16:56 Leopardstown

Ireland

Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Irish EBF Fillies Maiden

7f · Flat · Good To Firm · 15 runners · €13,200 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (15 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

So Lovely

No. 11 · score 37.6 · +12.6 clear of next best · best 8/11·1.72

Best value vs consensus

Fair Say

18·18.00 Matchbook · +6% vs fair (consensus 16.93)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way22.0/100 rating

Miss Hong Kong

10.00BetMGM

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

So Lovely

Wayne Lordan · A P O'Brien · 2yo

Top-rated of 15

score 37.6 · +12.6 clear of next best (25.0)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
21d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
78strong
Last 6: 2-2
Trainer20% weight
60average
A P O'Brien: 9/37 winners last 14d (24%)
Ratings50% weight
0weak
no Racing Post ratings on file

MarketBest price 1.72 (BetWright) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
14Voyage Of Survival
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(3)
5Isle Of Capri 11So Lovely 13Voice Of You
Unknown(11)
1Bougie Gals 2Brooq 3Ever My Treasure 4Fair Say 6Katty 7Little Darling 8Long Haired Lady 9Miss Hong Kong 10Native Jewel 12Villaray 15Zenith Blaze

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Leopardstown 7f

full course data →

Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.16

Mid (6–10)

IV 0.88

High (11–15)

IV 0.94

Today: Miss Hong Kong (draw 3) and Native Jewel (draw 5) get the bias; So Lovely (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 180 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
11	So LovelyPick J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 7 · combo 12/91 (13%) 2yo · F · baybrown	22	9-02	—	—	—	37.6	5/4·2.29	8/11·1.72 BetWright · -25% vs fair All 28 books ▾ BetWright8/11·1.72 BresBet8/11·1.72 Dragon Bet8/11·1.72 Bet3654/6·1.67 BetMGM4/6·1.67 Betfair Exchange1.65·1.65 Ladbrokes8/13·1.62 Quinn Bet8/13·1.62 SportingIndex8/13·1.62 Spreadex8/13·1.62 William Hill8/13·1.62 talkSPORT BET8/13·1.62Betfair Sportsbook8/13·1.62Paddy Power8/13·1.62 Bet Victor8/13·1.62 BetTom8/13·1.62 Betano8/13·1.62 Betfred8/13·1.62 Boyle Sports8/13·1.62 Coral8/13·1.62 Midnite8/13·1.62Matchbook1.6·1.60LiveScore Bet4/7·1.58Virgin Bet4/7·1.58Star Sports4/7·1.57 Unibet4/7·1.57Smarkets1.55·1.55SmarketsSBK8/15·1.53
8	Long Haired Lady J: Rory Cleary · T: M P Fogarty · draw 10 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	25.0	66/1·71.94	66/1·67.00 BetMGM · -7% vs fair All 26 books ▾ BetMGM66/1·67.00 BresBet60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 talkSPORT BET50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00Matchbook32·32.00Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
1	Bougie Gals J: Jamie Powell · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 12 · combo 3/32 (9%) 2yo · F · chOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	22.0	22/1·23.98	20/1·21.00 BetMGM · -12% vs fair All 28 books ▾ BetMGM20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 BresBet18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 talkSPORT BET18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Matchbook18.5·18.50Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00William Hill16/1·17.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00Smarkets14·14.00Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70
2	Brooq J: Nathan Crosse · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 13 2yo · F · baybrownOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	22.0	28/1·29.62	22/1·23.00 BresBet · -22% vs fair All 27 books ▾ BresBet22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 talkSPORT BET20/1·21.00Matchbook21·21.00LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Betfair Exchange18·18.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00Smarkets16·16.00
9	Miss Hong Kong J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 3 · combo 3/42 (7%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	22.0	12/1·12.70	9/1·10.00 BetMGM · -21% vs fair All 27 books ▾ BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetWright17/2·9.50 BresBet17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00William Hill8/1·9.00 talkSPORT BET8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Star Sports15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Matchbook7.6·7.60SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange5.9·5.90
3	Ever My Treasure J: Robbie Colgan · T: Henry De Bromhead · draw 15 2yo · F · bhFT HOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	20.5	66/1·71.94	50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports · -29% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 talkSPORT BET50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook35/1·36.00Smarkets29·29.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00Matchbook19.5·19.50Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
10	Native Jewel J: Shane Foley · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 5 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	20.0	14/1·15.52	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · -7% vs fair All 26 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00William Hill10/1·11.00 talkSPORT BET10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange4·4.00
15	Zenith Blaze J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 6 · combo 5/65 (8%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	20.0	12/1·13.40	10/1·11.00 BetMGM · -18% vs fair All 28 books ▾ BetMGM10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 BresBet10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 talkSPORT BET9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Bet36517/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50William Hill17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Coral17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50Matchbook8.8·8.80Smarkets8.2·8.20SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40
5	Isle Of Capri J: Paddy Harnett(5) · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 14 · combo 2/21 (10%) 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	6	9-02	—	—	—	19.5	22/1·23.98	20/1·21.00 BetMGM · -12% vs fair All 27 books ▾ BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 BresBet20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00Matchbook19·19.00Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 talkSPORT BET16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Star Sports14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Smarkets14·14.00SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
7	Little Darling J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh · draw 2 · combo 14/110 (13%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	18.5	40/1·40.91	33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet · -17% vs fair All 26 books ▾ Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 talkSPORT BET28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Matchbook26·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00
4	Fair Say J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld · draw 11 · combo 6/61 (10%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	18.0	16/1·16.93	18·18.00 Matchbook · +6% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Betano11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00William Hill11/1·12.00 talkSPORT BET11/1·12.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00Smarkets9.6·9.60SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange4.6·4.60
12	Villaray J: Gary Carroll · T: G M Lyons · draw 4 · combo 3/25 (12%) 2yo · F · b	8	9-02	—	—	—	15.5	18/1·18.34	18·18.00 Matchbook · -2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 BresBet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 talkSPORT BET12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange5.3·5.30
13	Voice Of You J: Terry Casey(7) · T: M C Hickey · draw 8 2yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner	57	9-02	—	—	—	11.0	33/1·36.68	33/1·34.00 BetMGM · -7% vs fair All 26 books ▾ BetMGM33/1·34.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 BresBet28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00Matchbook26·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00
6	Katty J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Adrian Sexton · draw 9 2yo · F · chOnly runner	8	9-02	—	—	—	9.0	33/1·36.68	33/1·34.00 BetMGM · -7% vs fair All 26 books ▾ BetMGM33/1·34.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 BresBet28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00Matchbook26·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00
14	Voyage Of Survival J: Luke McAteer · T: Alan McIntyre · draw 1 2yo · F · chpFT POnly runner	07	9-02	—	—	—	9.0	150/1·142.47	125/1·126.00 BetMGM · -12% vs fair All 26 books ▾ BetMGM125/1·126.00 BetWright125/1·126.00 Dragon Bet125/1·126.00 BresBet125/1·126.00 Bet Victor100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00 Betano100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 Midnite100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00 talkSPORT BET100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00SmarketsSBK66/1·67.00Matchbook38·38.00Betfair Exchange7·7.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 26–28 bookmakers per horse with the 41% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Irish EBF Fillies Maiden?

The Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Irish EBF Fillies Maiden is off at 16:56 on 20 August 2026 at Leopardstown (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:56 Leopardstown?

7f, Flat, 15 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:56 Leopardstown?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:56 Leopardstown?

The AI top-rated runner is So Lovely (score 37.6, best price 1.72). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:56 Leopardstown?

The market favourite is So Lovely at a best price of 1.72.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org