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18:30 Leopardstown

Ireland

Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Vinnie Roe Stakes (Listed)

1m6f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · €30,000 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 9 · score 62.7 · +1.5 clear of next best · best 16/1·18.00
Best value vs consensus
Teologia (also top rated)
18·18.00 Matchbook · +11% vs fair (consensus 16.17)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way61.2/100 rating
Abbotsford
4.50Bet365
Place portion settles at 1.70 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: AbbotsfordDiffers from our pick

Abbotsford heads this nine-runner Class 1 contest at Leopardstown on ratings, sitting narrowly ahead of Cannes and a few pounds clear of Piazza San Marco and Trojan Fighter, and the good-to-firm ground over fourteen furlongs looks a fair test for a horse of his profile. Cannes is the most obvious threat given he trails by only three pounds, while Piazza San Marco and Trojan Fighter will be competitive if reproducing their best form. The selection is taken to edge it, though the proximity of his rivals means a comfortable victory cannot be guaranteed. Abbotsford is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Teologia

Ben Coen · Joseph Patrick O'Brien · 3yo

Top-rated of 9
score 62.7 · +1.5 clear of next best (61.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    91very strong
    Last 6: 9-2-1-1-1
  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    34d since last run (fresh)
  • Ratings50% weight
    62average
    OR 93
  • Trainer20% weight
    25weak
    Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 6/59 winners last 14d (10%)
MarketBest price 18.00 (Matchbook) · 7th in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Leopardstown 1m6f

full course data →

Sample too small to call at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)
IV 1.18
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.89
High (7–9)
IV 0.91

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 33 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
9
J: Ben Coen · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 8
3yo · F · bpOnly pairing
92111
9362.716/1·16.1718·18.00
Matchbook · +11% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
1
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld · draw 4 · combo 6/61 (10%)
3yo · G · b
821
9861.24/1·4.977/2·4.50
Bet365 · -9% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
5
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 7 · combo 12/91 (13%)
3yo · C · b
7146
10560.113/2·7.4613/2·7.50
Betfair Sportsbook
All 28 books ▾
7
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 2 · combo 19/152 (13%)
3yo · C · chtpFT TPC
55311
9359.69/2·5.384/1·5.00
Bet365 · -7% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
8
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 5 · combo 3/42 (7%)
3yo · F · bt
011322
7958.620/1·21.1418/1·19.00
Bet365 · -10% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
2
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 3 · combo 5/65 (8%)
3yo · C · b
22103
9557.89/2·5.604/1·5.00
Bet365 · -11% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
4
J: Gary Carroll · T: Noel Meade · draw 1
3yo · G · bOnly pairing
32711
9657.510/1·10.5710·10.00
Matchbook · -5% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
3
3yo · C · bOnly pairing
90081
9351.816/1·16.1714/1·15.00
Paddy Power · -7% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
6
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: P Twomey · draw 9
3yo · C · chtOnly runner
45148
8948.628/1·28.6025/1·26.00
Bet365 · -9% vs fair
All 27 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 26–28 bookmakers per horse with the 24% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Vinnie Roe Stakes (Listed)?

The Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Vinnie Roe Stakes (Listed) is off at 18:30 on 20 August 2026 at Leopardstown (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 18:30 Leopardstown?

1m6f, Class 1, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 18:30 Leopardstown?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 18:30 Leopardstown?

The AI top-rated runner is Teologia (score 62.7, best price 18.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 18:30 Leopardstown?

The market favourite is Abbotsford at a best price of 4.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Teologia.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org