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19:30 Leopardstown

Ireland

Leopardstown Golf, Padel & Range Maiden

1m · Flat · Good To Firm · 14 runners · €9,000 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 10 · score 63.8 · +36.9 clear of next best · best 9/1·9.80
Best value vs consensus
12.5·12.50 Matchbook · +6% vs fair (consensus 11.81)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way63.8/100 rating
Port Arthur
9.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Port Arthur

Wayne Lordan · M C Grassick · 3yo

Top-rated of 14
score 63.8 · +36.9 clear of next best (26.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    17d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Trainer20% weight
    83small sample (n=3)
    M C Grassick: 1/3 winners last 14d (33%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
  • Form20% weight
    55average
    Last 6: 3-4-3
  • Ratings50% weight
    53average
    OR 79 — highest combined rating in the field
MarketBest price 9.80 (Matchbook) · 4th in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Leopardstown 1m

full course data →

Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–5)
IV 1.16
Mid (6–10)
IV 0.88
High (11–14)
IV 0.94

Today: Goddess Of War (draw 4) and Mothel Abbey (draw 3) get the bias; Uncle Goalie (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 180 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
10
J: Wayne Lordan · T: M C Grassick · draw 13 · combo 1/10 (10%)
3yo · G · br
343
7963.817/2·9.729.8·9.80
Matchbook
All 28 books ▾
6
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: K J Condon · draw 11
3yo · G · g
52
26.910/1·11.1110.5·10.50
Matchbook · -5% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
13
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 4 · combo 19/152 (13%)
3yo · F · b
4
22.09/4·3.312.68·2.68
Betfair Exchange · -19% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
12
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Rory Anthony Devine · draw 7
3yo · C · bOnly runner
43
21.05/1·6.259/2·5.50
Bet365 · -12% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
2
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 12 · combo 5/65 (8%)
4yo · G · b
20.06/1·6.955.9·5.90
Matchbook · -15% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
7
J: Gary Carroll · T: A Oliver · draw 9 · combo 1/17 (6%)
3yo · G · chh
07
20.050/1·56.9550/1·51.00
Paddy Power · -10% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
9
J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(7) · T: Patrick J Flynn · draw 6 · combo 3/23 (13%)
3yo · G · bOnly ride
67
18.866/1·70.8450/1·51.00
Bet Victor · -28% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
3
J: Ben Coen · T: P J F Murphy · draw 10
3yo · G · br
48
17.8150/1·140.29125/1·126.00
Bet365 · -10% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
8
J: Alan Persse(5) · T: Patrick J Flynn · draw 3 · combo 0/10 (0%)
3yo · G · chOnly ride
8
17.566/1·70.8450/1·51.00
Boyle Sports · -28% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
4
J: Shay Wallace(7) · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 8 · combo 0/7 (0%)
3yo · G · bOnly ride
05
16.0100/1·112.51100/1·101.00
Betfair Sportsbook · -10% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
14
J: Luke McAteer · T: David Marnane · draw 5 · combo 5/64 (8%)
3yo · F · cht
6
12.511/1·11.8112.5·12.50
Matchbook · +6% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
1
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld · draw 14 · combo 6/61 (10%)
4yo · G · b
8
12.080/1·84.7380/1·81.00
Bet365 · -4% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
5
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade · draw 1 · combo 1/24 (4%)
3yo · C · ch
6
11.050/1·56.9550/1·51.00
Bet365 · -10% vs fair
All 26 books ▾
11
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Liam P Cusack · draw 2 · combo 0/5 (0%)
3yo · G · bOnly runner
7
9.540/1·40.2833/1·34.00
BetMGM · -16% vs fair
All 26 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 26–28 bookmakers per horse with the 39% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Leopardstown Golf, Padel & Range Maiden?

The Leopardstown Golf, Padel & Range Maiden is off at 19:30 on 20 August 2026 at Leopardstown (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:30 Leopardstown?

1m, Flat, 14 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:30 Leopardstown?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:30 Leopardstown?

The AI top-rated runner is Port Arthur (score 63.8, best price 9.80). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:30 Leopardstown?

The market favourite is Goddess Of War at a best price of 2.68. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Port Arthur.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org