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13:50 York

Sky Bet Mile Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

1m · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Soft · 20 runners · £51,540 · Friday, 21 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 9 · score 71.9 · +0.1 clear of next best · best 40/1·38.00
Best value vs consensus
34·34.00 Matchbook · +25% vs fair (consensus 27.29)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way64.4/100 rating
Blue Courvoisier
10.50Smarkets

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Welbury

Oisin Orr · Edward Bethell · 3yo

Top-rated of 20
score 71.9 · +0.1 clear of next best (71.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    90very strong
    Edward Bethell: 9/25 winners last 14d (36%)
  • Form20% weight
    84very strong
    Last 6: 1-2-2-4-1-1
  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    13d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Ratings50% weight
    60average
    OR 90
MarketBest price 38.00 (Matchbook) · 14th in the market of 20.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 1m

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.22).

Low (1–7)
IV 1.22
Mid (8–14)
IV 1.06
High (15–20)
IV 0.71

Today: Noelan Star (draw 7) and Le Samourai (draw 1) get the bias; Welbury (draw 19) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 91 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
9
J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell · draw 19 · combo 9/29 (31%)
3yo · G · grpDOnly ride
122411
9071.925/1·27.2938·38.00
Matchbook · +39% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
6
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 7 · combo 8/28 (29%)
3yo · G · chD
11301
9271.750/1·48.8460·60.00
Matchbook · +23% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
3
J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Harry Eustace · draw 18 · combo 7/33 (21%)
3yo · G · bOnly pairing
1312
9669.618/1·18.6718·18.00
Smarkets · -4% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
20
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 1 · combo 7/50 (14%)
3yo · G · cht
012
8466.518/1·18.6720/1·21.00
SmarketsSBK · +13% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
5
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox · draw 5 · combo 7/38 (18%)
3yo · C · bDOnly pairing
24103
9264.412/1·12.9310.5·10.50
Smarkets · -19% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
7
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 4 · combo 17/125 (14%)
3yo · G · bpOnly pairing
19042
9258.85/1·6.224.8·4.80
Matchbook · -23% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
14
J: William Buick · T: William Haggas · draw 15
3yo · G · chDOnly pairing
6241
8758.714/1·14.3719.5·19.50
Betfair Exchange · +36% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
17
J: Rob Hornby · T: Gary & Josh Moore · draw 9
3yo · C · bpOnly runner
23226
8558.614/1·14.3713·13.00
Betfair Exchange · -9% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
11
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 12 · combo 20/136 (15%)
3yo · G · bD
51314
8958.518/1·18.6719.5·19.50
Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
12
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Stuart Williams · draw 17 · combo 6/44 (14%)
3yo · C · grOnly runner
55312
8858.520/1·21.5524·24.00
Matchbook · +11% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
13
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 2
3yo · C · bDOnly runner
4121
8758.120/1·21.5518·18.00
Matchbook · -16% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
2
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 13 · combo 12/73 (16%)
3yo · C · bD
31101
9758.025/1·27.2934·34.00
Matchbook · +25% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
15
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons · draw 10 · combo 19/78 (24%)
3yo · G · btpFT TPDOnly runner
23313
8656.533/1·37.3540·40.00
Matchbook · +7% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
4
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott · draw 6 · combo 5/47 (11%)
3yo · G · bOnly ride
7774
9456.250/1·48.8470·70.00
Matchbook · +43% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
1
J: James Doyle · T: Archie Watson · draw 11
3yo · G · bDOnly runner
44101
9955.514/1·15.8016.5·16.50
Smarkets · +4% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
19
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 3 · combo 9/49 (18%)
3yo · G · btp
751146
8452.725/1·27.2922/1·23.00
William Hill · -16% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
16
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker · draw 20 · combo 12/42 (29%)
3yo · G · bOnly pairing
19742
8551.550/1·58.9050/1·51.00
William Hill · -13% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
18
J: James Sullivan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 8 · combo 1/18 (6%)
3yo · G · bOnly ride
290782
8447.450/1·58.9050·50.00
Matchbook · -15% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
8
J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 14 · combo 4/42 (10%)
3yo · C · bt
17477
9047.350/1·58.9050/1·51.00
Bet365 · -13% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
10
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Oli Rix · draw 16
3yo · G · bOnly runner
11300
9046.412/1·12.9312/1·13.00
talkSPORT BET
All 29 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–29 bookmakers per horse with the 44% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Sky Bet Mile Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)?

The Sky Bet Mile Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) is off at 13:50 on 21 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 13:50 York?

1m, Class 2, Flat, 20 runners declared.

What is the going for the 13:50 York?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 13:50 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Welbury (score 71.9, best price 38.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 13:50 York?

The market favourite is Zennor Storm at a best price of 4.80. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Welbury.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org