19:54 Newcastle (AW)

Harry Potter Droneart Show Nursery Handicap Stakes

5f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Influencer Man

No. 1 · score 58.7 · +2.0 clear of next best · best 5/2·3.50

Best value vs consensus

May Bee In Profit

14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +17% vs fair (consensus 12.36)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Influencer Man advised 5/2·3.50 (Betfair Exchange), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Influencer ManAgrees with our pick

Influencer Man heads this six-runner Newcastle sprint on ratings and has the profile of a horse well-suited to five furlongs on the all-weather, making him a straightforward pick at Class 4 level. This Moment is the most likely threat, sitting five points behind on our assessment, while Casino Star and Social Spirit will need to find more than their figures suggest to bridge the gap. The remainder look out of their depth against the selection's credentials. Influencer Man is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Influencer Man

Oisin McSweeney · Adrian Keatley · 2yo

Top-rated of 6

score 58.7 · +2.0 clear of next best (56.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Form20% weight
84very strong
Last 6: 4-2-1
Freshness10% weight
70strong
9d since last run (quick turnaround)
Ratings50% weight
50average
OR 75
Trainer20% weight
50average
Adrian Keatley: 2/10 winners last 14d (20%)

MarketBest price 3.50 (Smarkets) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
4May Bee In Profit
Prominent(3)
2This Moment 5Social Spirit 6Star People
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
1Influencer Man 3Casino Star

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 5f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–2)

IV 1.02

Mid (3–4)

IV 0.88

High (5–6)

IV 1.09

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	Influencer ManPick J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 5 · combo 3/7 (43%) 2yo · G · chpFT POn last winning markD	421	9-11	75	—	—	58.7	11/4·3.65	3.5·3.50 Smarkets · -4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Smarkets3.5·3.50Matchbook3.45·3.45BetMGM12/5·3.40 Betfair Exchange3.35·3.35 Coral9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25 10 Bet9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 BresBet2/1·3.00 talkSPORT BET2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 Betano15/8·2.88 Bet Victor15/8·2.88
3	Casino Star J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: K. R. Burke · draw 4 · combo 5/33 (15%) 2yo · C · chpFT PClass dropOnly runner	2623	9-06	76	—	—	56.7	9/2·5.62	9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK · -2% vs fair All 30 books ▾ SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50Matchbook5.3·5.30Smarkets5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.3·5.30 Unibet4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BresBet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00BetMGM4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Betano7/2·4.50 talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 BetWright10/3·4.33
2	This Moment J: Grace McEntee · T: George Boughey · draw 2 2yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	2424	9-09	79	—	—	54.0	9/2·5.62	5.6·5.60 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook5.6·5.60Smarkets5.4·5.40Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40 BetWright4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Bet3654/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BresBet4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Betano7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50
6	Star People J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 3 · combo 3/70 (4%) 2yo · G · bbFT BOnly runner	0523	9-01	71	—	—	48.4	5/1·6.18	11/2·6.50 BetWright · +5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ BetWright11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Unibet5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00Matchbook6·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00Smarkets5.9·5.90Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 BresBet9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Bet3659/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 talkSPORT BET4/1·5.00
4	May Bee In Profit J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby · draw 6 · combo 7/56 (13%) 2yo · F · bClass dropDOnly pairing	92310	9-03	73	—	—	47.2	11/1·12.36	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +17% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange13·13.00Smarkets12.5·12.50Bet36511/1·12.00 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Coral10/1·11.00 10 Bet10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00talkSPORT BET9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00BetTom9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00
5	Social Spirit J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 1 · combo 7/77 (9%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	35680	9-01	71	—	—	40.6	7/1·7.86	7.6·7.60 Matchbook · -3% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Betfair Exchange7.6·7.60 Betfred13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50Smarkets7.4·7.40BresBet6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 talkSPORT BET6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.507Bet11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.5010 Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Unibet5/1·6.00 BetWright9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 12% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Harry Potter Droneart Show Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Harry Potter Droneart Show Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 19:54 on 20 August 2026 at Newcastle (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:54 Newcastle (AW)?

5f, Class 4, Flat, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:54 Newcastle (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:54 Newcastle (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Influencer Man (score 58.7, best price 3.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:54 Newcastle (AW)?

The market favourite is Influencer Man at a best price of 3.50.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org