20:24 Newcastle (AW)

Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes

5f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 13 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 10th

1st
Lethal Nymph (GB)
David Nolan·Paul Midgley
3/1F·4.00
SP
2nd
Changeofmind (IRE)
Zak Wheatley·Declan Carroll·beaten 0.1 lengths
22/1·23.00
SP
3rd
Little Mi Mi (IRE)
Jack Nicholls·Iain Jardine·beaten 1.75 lengths
4/1·5.00
SP

Race time

58.79s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Lethal Nymph (GB))

“Held up towards the back of the pack - pushed along with 2f left - closed in on the front-runner inside the final furlong - got there in a driving finish right on the line”

AI top-rated Buzz Box (score 57.6) finished 10th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 8.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.12.62 score

Lethal Nymph

6.00Smarkets

segment +6.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 4

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Star Material

Star Material heads this thirteen-runner sprint on the Newcastle all-weather surface rated narrowly ahead of the field, with Lethal Nymph the closest pursuer four pounds back and Duran and Copper Knight a further three behind that. The dangers are real enough — Lethal Nymph in particular is next best on our figures and cannot be dismissed, while Duran and Copper Knight add further depth to the opposition. That said, Star Material's rating advantage at the head of the market on these figures, combined with the five-furlong trip on a standard surface that should suit a horse of his profile, makes him a credible call. Star Material is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Buzz Box

Jason Hart · Michael Herrington · 5yo

Top-rated of 13

score 57.6 · +0.9 clear of next best (56.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
21d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
78strong
Michael Herrington: 4/13 winners last 14d (31%)
Ratings50% weight
50average
OR 75
Form20% weight
36below average
Last 6: 1-1-4-9-7

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 5f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 1.02

Mid (6–9)

IV 0.88

High (10–13)

IV 1.09

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	4	Lethal Nymphv1.1 J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley · draw 11 7yo · G · b	048528	9-13	79	—	—	42.9	3/1F·4.00 SP
2	3	Changeofmind J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll · draw 5 6yo · G · ch	01876	9-13	79	—	—	40.0	22/1·23.00 SP
3	9	Little Mi Mi J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 3 5yo · M · ch	210411	9-10	76	—	—	56.7	4/1·5.00 SP
4	6	Smart Vision J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Jessica Macey · draw 7 5yo · G · bp	098994	9-11	77	—	—	39.1	7/1·8.00 SP
5	13	Too Much J: Dylan Hogan · T: David Thompson · draw 1 6yo · M · brh	30671	8-10	62	—	—	39.7	28/1·29.00 SP
6	8	Azuinthejungle J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler · draw 9 4yo · G · ch	732111	9-10	76	—	—	55.6	7/1·8.00 SP
7	1	True Promise J: Harry Russell · T: Fionn McSharry · draw 4 5yo · G · ch	220159	10-01	81	—	—	44.8	14/1·15.00 SP
8	11	Castan J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Bryan Smart · draw 10 6yo · G · chp	140963	9-08	74	—	—	38.1	8/1·9.00 SP
9	7	Copper Knight J: James Sullivan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2 12yo · G · bt	210690	9-11	77	—	—	42.4	25/1·26.00 SP
10	10	Buzz Box J: Jason Hart · T: Michael Herrington · draw 6 5yo · G · b	11497	9-09	75	—	—	57.6	8/1·9.00 SP
11	5	Duran J: Faye McManoman · T: Nigel Tinkler · draw 12 5yo · G · b	20500	9-12	78	—	—	40.2	11/1·12.00 SP
12	12	Ice Cold Alex J: Luke Morris · T: Ollie Pears · draw 13 3yo · G · b	44646	9-02	70	—	—	41.2	33/1·34.00 SP
13	2	Star Material J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 8 3yo · G · b	0983R	10-00	82	—	—	51.1	16/1·17.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 20:24 Newcastle (AW) on 20 August 2026?

Lethal Nymph (GB) won the 20:24 Newcastle (AW) at SP 4.00. Ridden by David Nolan. Trained by Paul Midgley.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

No — the AI top pick (Buzz Box) finished 10.

What were the placings in the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Lethal Nymph (GB) (4.00), 2. Changeofmind (IRE) (23.00), 3. Little Mi Mi (IRE) (5.00).

What was the winning time for the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

The winning time was 58.79s.

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