20:24 Newcastle (AW)

Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes

5f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 13 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Buzz Box

No. 10 · score 57.6 · +0.9 clear of next best · best 7/1·8.00

Best value vs consensus

Ice Cold Alex

40·40.00 Matchbook · +7% vs fair (consensus 37.55)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Buzz Box advised 7/1·8.00 (Matchbook), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way57.6/100 rating

Buzz Box

8.00Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Star MaterialDiffers from our pick

Star Material heads this thirteen-runner sprint on the Newcastle all-weather surface rated narrowly ahead of the field, with Lethal Nymph the closest pursuer four pounds back and Duran and Copper Knight a further three behind that. The dangers are real enough — Lethal Nymph in particular is next best on our figures and cannot be dismissed, while Duran and Copper Knight add further depth to the opposition. That said, Star Material's rating advantage at the head of the market on these figures, combined with the five-furlong trip on a standard surface that should suit a horse of his profile, makes him a credible call. Star Material is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Buzz Box

Jason Hart · Michael Herrington · 5yo

Top-rated of 13

score 57.6 · +0.9 clear of next best (56.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
21d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
78strong
Michael Herrington: 4/13 winners last 14d (31%)
Ratings50% weight
50average
OR 75
Form20% weight
36below average
Last 6: 1-1-4-9-7

MarketBest price 8.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 4th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 4 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Front-runners(4)
6Smart Vision 7Copper Knight 8Azuinthejungle 13Too Much
Prominent(4)
3Changeofmind 4Lethal Nymph 11Castan 12Ice Cold Alex
Mid-division(2)
1True Promise 9Little Mi Mi
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(3)
2Star Material 5Duran 10Buzz Box

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 5f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 1.02

Mid (6–9)

IV 0.88

High (10–13)

IV 1.09

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
10	Buzz BoxPick J: Jason Hart · T: Michael Herrington · draw 6 · combo 3/9 (33%) 5yo · G · bOnly runner	11497	9-09	75	—	—	57.6	15/2·8.42	8·8.00 Betfair Exchange · -5% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8·8.00Matchbook8·8.00Smarkets7.6·7.60SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 7Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50BetTom5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 William Hill9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50talkSPORT BET9/2·5.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50
9	Little Mi Mi J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 3 · combo 8/20 (40%) 5yo · M · chC&D	210411	9-10	76	—	—	56.7	11/2·6.47	5.8·5.80 Smarkets · -10% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets5.8·5.80Matchbook5.8·5.80Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Star Sports4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BresBet4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 Bet3654/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50
8	Azuinthejungle J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler · draw 9 · combo 7/77 (9%) 4yo · G · chDOnly pairing	732111	9-10	76	—	—	55.6	17/2·9.71	8.2·8.20 Matchbook · -16% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook8.2·8.20Coral7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00Smarkets8·8.00Betfair Exchange7.6·7.60 10 Bet13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 7Bet6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00talkSPORT BET11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50
2	Star Material J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 8 · combo 3/7 (43%) 3yo · G · b	0983R	10-00	82	—	—	51.1	25/1·27.19	40·40.00 Matchbook · +47% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook40·40.00Smarkets40·40.00Betfair Exchange40·40.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 BresBet20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Bet Victor16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 talkSPORT BET16/1·17.00
1	True Promise J: Harry Russell · T: Fionn McSharry · draw 4 5yo · G · chDOnly rideOnly runner	220159	10-01	81	—	—	44.8	33/1·33.66	30·30.00 Matchbook · -11% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook30·30.00Smarkets29·29.00BetMGM25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00BresBet22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 talkSPORT BET20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00
4	Lethal Nymph J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley · draw 11 · combo 4/45 (9%) 7yo · G · b	048528	9-13	79	—	—	42.9	5/1·5.83	5.6·5.60 Smarkets · -4% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets5.6·5.60Matchbook5.6·5.60Betfair Exchange5.5·5.50 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 BresBet7/2·4.50 talkSPORT BET10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33Bet Victor10/3·4.33 10 Bet3/1·4.00
7	Copper Knight J: James Sullivan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2 · combo 1/17 (6%) 12yo · G · btOnly pairing	210690	9-11	77	—	—	42.4	25/1·24.60	36·36.00 Matchbook · +46% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook36·36.00Smarkets32·32.00SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 BresBet18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50 10 Bet16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Betano14/1·15.00 talkSPORT BET14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00
12	Ice Cold Alex J: Luke Morris · T: Ollie Pears · draw 13 3yo · G · bOnly runner	44646	9-02	70	—	—	41.2	40/1·37.55	40·40.00 Matchbook · +7% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook40·40.00Smarkets34·34.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.007Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 talkSPORT BET22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Betfair Exchange22·22.00
5	Duran J: Faye McManoman · T: Nigel Tinkler · draw 12 · combo 4/51 (8%) 5yo · G · b	20500	9-12	78	—	—	40.2	14/1·15.54	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · -7% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Smarkets14·14.00SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Betfair Exchange13.5·13.50 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Unibet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.007Bet10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 talkSPORT BET9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Spreadex17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50
3	Changeofmind J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll · draw 5 · combo 6/66 (9%) 6yo · G · chD	01876	9-13	79	—	—	40.0	33/1·33.66	34·34.00 Matchbook All 29 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00Smarkets30·30.00SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Betfair Exchange27·27.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Betfred22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 talkSPORT BET20/1·21.00
13	Too Much J: Dylan Hogan · T: David Thompson · draw 1 6yo · M · brhC&D	30671	8-10	62	—	—	39.7	40/1·37.55	48·48.00 Matchbook · +28% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook48·48.00Smarkets42·42.00SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00BetTom28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 BresBet28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Betfair Exchange28·28.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 talkSPORT BET22/1·23.00
6	Smart Vision J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Jessica Macey · draw 7 · combo 0/17 (0%) 5yo · G · bpOnly runner	098994	9-11	77	—	—	39.1	15/2·8.42	7.8·7.80 Betfair Exchange · -7% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.8·7.80Matchbook7.8·7.80Smarkets7.2·7.20Spreadex6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 10 Bet11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Bet36511/2·6.50 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 talkSPORT BET5/1·6.00Virgin Bet9/2·5.50LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50
11	Castan J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Bryan Smart · draw 10 · combo 1/24 (4%) 6yo · G · chp	140963	9-08	74	—	—	38.1	12/1·12.69	10.5·10.50 Matchbook · -17% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook10.5·10.50Unibet9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00Smarkets9.8·9.80Midnite17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.507Bet17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50BresBet17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 talkSPORT BET15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Betfair Exchange7.8·7.80

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 29% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes?

The Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes is off at 20:24 on 20 August 2026 at Newcastle (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

5f, Class 4, Flat, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Buzz Box (score 57.6, best price 8.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 20:24 Newcastle (AW)?

The market favourite is Lethal Nymph at a best price of 5.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Buzz Box.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org