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16:45 York

Mews Hotel Ossett Ebf Stallions Nursery Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 2 · Good · 22 runners · £51,540 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 6 · score 76.3 · +8.7 clear of next best · best 13/2·7.40
Best value vs consensus
9.4·9.40 Betfair Exchange · +19% vs fair (consensus 7.91)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way76.3/100 rating
Weleyff
7.40Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Big CigarDiffers from our pick

Big Cigar heads a competitive 22-runner Class 2 sprint at York on good ground with a rating six points clear of Revels and comfortably ahead of the remainder, which in a field this size amounts to a meaningful edge at seven furlongs. Revels is the most obvious threat as the only other runner rated in the 90s, while Shadow King and Perfect Nation will both need to improve to bridge the gap to the top of the ratings. With the confidence to go high on selection in a trappy Class 2, Big Cigar looks the one to be on, and that is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Weleyff

Oisin Orr · Edward Bethell · 2yo

Top-rated of 22
score 76.3 · +8.7 clear of next best (67.6)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    19d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Trainer20% weight
    95very strong
    Edward Bethell: 9/24 winners last 14d (38%)
  • Form20% weight
    93very strong
    Last 6: 3-1-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    57average
    OR 86
MarketBest price 7.40 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 22.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 6 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 7f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.22).

Low (1–8)
IV 1.22
Mid (9–15)
IV 1.06
High (16–22)
IV 0.71

Today: Perfect Nation (draw 4) and Roosike (draw 8) get the bias; Weleyff (draw 16) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 91 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
6
J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell · draw 16 · combo 9/27 (33%)
2yo · C · bD
311
8676.317/2·9.347.4·7.40
Betfair Exchange · -21% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
4
J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 4 · combo 22/104 (21%)
2yo · C · bD
211
8867.615/2·8.627.4·7.40
Betfair Exchange · -14% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
2
J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 20 · combo 12/60 (20%)
2yo · C · chDOnly ride
191
9064.214/1·14.3711/1·12.00
William Hill · -16% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
13
J: David Egan · T: John Butler · draw 12 · combo 4/17 (24%)
2yo · C · bOnly runner
4315
8162.228/1·30.1946·46.00
Smarkets · +52% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
11
J: William Buick · T: George Boughey · draw 11
2yo · C · bOnly pairing
012
8260.814/1·14.3714·14.00
Matchbook · -3% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
12
J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 14 · combo 2/10 (20%)
2yo · C · bDOnly pairing
412
8260.822/1·24.4427·27.00
Matchbook · +11% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
15
J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hughes · draw 8
2yo · F · bDOnly ride
321
7960.050/1·48.8748·48.00
Matchbook · -2% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
7
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 21 · combo 19/99 (19%)
2yo · C · b
222
8459.67/1·7.919.4·9.40
Betfair Exchange · +19% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
1
J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 13 · combo 3/44 (7%)
2yo · C · bClass dropCOnly ride
15177
9456.840/1·41.6940·40.00
Matchbook · -4% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
19
2yo · C · brOnly runner
55143
7255.150/1·58.9485·85.00
Matchbook · +44% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
10
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 10 · combo 20/134 (15%)
2yo · C · chGoing 1/2
01022
8354.718/1·18.6918/1·19.00
SmarketsSBK · +2% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
5
J: Hector Crouch · T: William Knight · draw 5
2yo · C · bOnly pairing
12
8654.225/1·27.3118/1·19.00
Paddy Power · -30% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
3
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 2 · combo 16/105 (15%)
2yo · C · bbD
51319
8953.966/1·73.3165·65.00
Matchbook · -11% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
9
J: Tom Marquand · T: Ed Walker · draw 7 · combo 0/8 (0%)
2yo · F · bDOnly pairing
65811
8353.128/1·30.1948·48.00
Matchbook · +59% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
18
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 6
2yo · C · bOnly pairing
422
7349.350/1·48.8755·55.00
Matchbook · +13% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
16
J: Aiden Brookes · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 22
2yo · C · bpDOnly ride
902231
7449.0100/1·96.31190·190.00
Smarkets · +97% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
22
2yo · G · bGoing 1/2
3551
6948.7100/1·96.31100·100.00
Smarkets · +4% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
8
J: Saffie Osborne · T: David Evans · draw 1 · combo 1/9 (11%)
2yo · G · chClass dropOnly runner
15305
8347.766/1·73.3180·80.00
Smarkets · +9% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
14
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 9
2yo · C · bDOnly pairing
136
7947.711/2·6.475.1·5.10
Matchbook · -21% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
20
J: Sean Bowen · T: Richard Hannon · draw 18
2yo · C · bOnly ride
5662
7145.566/1·63.2570·70.00
Matchbook · +11% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
17
J: Cam Hardie · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 19
2yo · G · bpFT POnly pairing
9230
7343.2150/1·145.18190·190.00
Matchbook · +31% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
21
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 17 · combo 5/113 (4%)
2yo · C · btFT TOnly ride
65370
7040.6150/1·145.18230·230.00
Matchbook · +58% vs fair
All 27 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–29 bookmakers per horse with the 44% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Mews Hotel Ossett Ebf Stallions Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Mews Hotel Ossett Ebf Stallions Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 16:45 on 20 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:45 York?

7f, Class 2, Flat, 22 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:45 York?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:45 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Weleyff (score 76.3, best price 7.40). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:45 York?

The market favourite is Mia Fantasia at a best price of 5.10. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Weleyff.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org