Who won the 16:45 York on 20 August 2026?
Mia Fantasia (IRE) won the 16:45 York at SP 4.00. Ridden by Marco Ghiani. Trained by Hugo Palmer.
16:45 York
Mews Hotel Ossett Ebf Stallions Nursery Handicap Stakes
7f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Soft · 18 runners · £51,540 · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 16thRace report
- 1stMia Fantasia (IRE)Marco Ghiani·Hugo Palmer3/1F·4.00SP
- 2ndTheheatison (GB)Silvestre De Sousa·Nick Scholfield·beaten 2.5 lengths50/1·51.00SP
- 3rdCaeruleus (IRE)David Egan·John Butler·beaten .5 lengths22/1·23.00SP
Race time
1m 29.34s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Mia Fantasia (IRE))
“Knocked at the break - settled last of the group - urged forward past the 3f marker - surged into command with 2f left - driven on inside the final furlong - kept finding more to score with ease”
AI top-rated Weleyff (score 75.3) finished 16th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 5.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Big Cigar
Big Cigar heads a competitive 22-runner Class 2 sprint at York on good ground with a rating six points clear of Revels and comfortably ahead of the remainder, which in a field this size amounts to a meaningful edge at seven furlongs. Revels is the most obvious threat as the only other runner rated in the 90s, while Shadow King and Perfect Nation will both need to improve to bridge the gap to the top of the ratings. With the confidence to go high on selection in a trappy Class 2, Big Cigar looks the one to be on, and that is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Weleyff
Oisin Orr · Edward Bethell · 2yo
Top-rated of 18
score 75.3 · +7.7 clear of next best (67.6)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong19d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight93very strongLast 6: 3-1-1
- Trainer20% weight90very strongEdward Bethell: 9/25 winners last 14d (36%)
- Ratings50% weight57averageOR 86
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — York 7f
full course data →Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.22).
Low (1–8)
IV 1.22
Mid (9–15)
IV 1.06
High (16–22)
IV 0.71
Today: Perfect Nation (draw 4) and Roosike (draw 8) get the bias; Weleyff (draw 16) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 91 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | J: Marco Ghiani · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 9 2yo · C · b | 136 | 79 | 47.7 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| 2 | 19 | J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Nick Scholfield · draw 15 2yo · C · br | 55143 | 72 | 55.1 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 3 | 13 | J: David Egan · T: John Butler · draw 12 2yo · C · b | 4315 | 81 | 61.2 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 4 | 7 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 21 2yo · C · b | 222 | 84 | 60.1 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 4 2yo · C · b | 211 | 88 | 67.6 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 6 | 10 | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 10 2yo · C · ch | 01022 | 83 | 54.7 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 7 | 9 | J: Tom Marquand · T: Ed Walker · draw 7 2yo · F · b | 65811 | 83 | 53.1 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 8 | 22 | J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Brian Ellison · draw 3 2yo · G · b | 3551 | 69 | 46.2 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: David Evans · draw 1 2yo · G · ch | 15305 | 83 | 47.2 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 10 | 2 | J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 20 2yo · C · ch | 191 | 90 | 66.2 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 11 | 3 | J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 2 2yo · C · bb | 51319 | 89 | 53.9 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 12 | 16 | J: Aiden Brookes · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 22 2yo · C · bp | 902231 | 74 | 49.0 | 100/1·101.00 SP |
| 13 | 17 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 19 2yo · G · bpFT P | 9230 | 73 | 43.2 | 100/1·101.00 SP |
| 14 | 15 | J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hughes · draw 8 2yo · F · b | 321 | 79 | 61.0 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 15 | 21 | J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 17 2yo · C · btFT T | 65370 | 70 | 40.6 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
| 16 | 6 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell · draw 16 2yo · C · b | 311 | 86 | 75.3 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 17 | 12 | J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 14 2yo · C · b | 412 | 82 | 60.3 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 18 | 11 | J: William Buick · T: George Boughey · draw 11 2yo · C · b | 012 | 82 | 60.8 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Hector Crouch · T: William Knight · draw 5 2yo · C · b | 12 | 86 | 54.2 | — |
| — | — | J: Sean Bowen · T: Richard Hannon · draw 18 2yo · C · b | 5662 | 71 | 45.5 | — |
| — | — | J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 13 2yo · C · b | 15177 | 94 | 56.8 | — |
| — | — | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 6 2yo · C · b | 422 | 73 | 49.3 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 York?
No — the AI top pick (Weleyff) finished 16.
What were the placings in the 16:45 York?
Top finishers: 1. Mia Fantasia (IRE) (4.00), 2. Theheatison (GB) (51.00), 3. Caeruleus (IRE) (23.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:45 York?
The winning time was 1m 29.34s.
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