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RacingAlpha

17:40 Hamilton

Darley EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Soft · 3 runners · £20,616 · Friday, 21 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Nakassama (IRE)
    Shane Gray·Noel C Kelly
    4/1·5.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Lord D'or (GER)AI top pick · 58.8
    Callum Rodriguez·Andrew Balding·beaten 0.3 lengths
    4/9F·1.44
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Flagbearer (GB)
    Cieren Fallon·William Haggas·beaten 0.3 lengths
    9/2·5.50
    SP
Race time
2m 26.78s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Nakassama (IRE))

“Set the pace early - driven and lost front spot approaching 2f out - stayed in touch and fought back to edge in front inside the final 110 yards - kept on to prevail by the narrowest of margins”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.44 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Lord d'Or

Callum Rodriguez · Andrew Balding · 3yo

Top-rated of 3
score 58.8 · +11.1 clear of next best (47.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    32d since last run (fresh)
  • Form20% weight
    72strong
    Last 6: 6-2-2-2
  • Ratings50% weight
    55average
    OR 82 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    43below average
    Andrew Balding: 10/60 winners last 14d (17%)
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Hamilton 1m3f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–1)
IV 0.95
Mid (2–2)
IV 1.02
High (3–3)
IV 1.04

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 145 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
11
J: Shane Gray · T: Noel C Kelly · draw 2
6yo · G · bt
7424
8247.7
4/1·5.00
SP
23
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Andrew Balding · draw 1
3yo · C · b
6222
8258.8
4/9F·1.44
SP
32
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas · draw 3
3yo · G · b
4
—29.0
9/2·5.50
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 17:40 Hamilton on 21 August 2026?

Nakassama (IRE) won the 17:40 Hamilton at SP 5.00. Ridden by Shane Gray. Trained by Noel C Kelly.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 17:40 Hamilton?

No — the AI top pick (Lord d'Or) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 17:40 Hamilton?

Top finishers: 1. Nakassama (IRE) (5.00), 2. Lord D'or (GER) (1.44), 3. Flagbearer (GB) (5.50).

What was the winning time for the 17:40 Hamilton?

The winning time was 2m 26.78s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org