17:12 Killarney

Ireland

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap

1m · Flat · Good · 8 runners · €9,000 · Friday, 21 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (8 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Seaxburh

No. 3 · score 53.9 · +4.6 clear of next best · best 4/1·5.00

Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way53.9/100 rating

Seaxburh

5.00Bet365

Place portion settles at 1.80 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Seaxburh

Declan McDonogh · Joseph Patrick O'Brien · 2yo

Top-rated of 8

score 53.9 · +4.6 clear of next best (49.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
61average
Last 6: 5-6-2-2-3
Ratings50% weight
51average
OR 77 — above field median
Trainer20% weight
30weak
Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 7/57 winners last 14d (12%)

MarketBest price 5.00 (Bet365) · 3rd in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
2Margot Mae 3Seaxburh
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(3)
6Old Joanie 7Elyatta 8Fine Line
Hold-up / closers(3)
1Belicoso 4Razmataz 5Maggie Walker

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Killarney 1m

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–3)

IV 1.24

Mid (4–6)

IV 1.12

High (7–8)

IV 0.63

Today: Margot Mae (draw 3) and Old Joanie (draw 1) get the bias; Belicoso (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 72 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	SeaxburhPick J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 6 · combo 5/70 (7%) 2yo · F · bp	56223	9-09	77	—	—	53.9	4/1·5.13	4/1·5.00 Bet365 · -2% vs fair All 26 books ▾ Bet3654/1·5.00 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 BresBet3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.75Paddy Power11/4·3.75 SmarketsSBK12/5·3.40 Betfair Exchange2.66·2.66Matchbook2.66·2.66
1	Belicoso J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 7 · combo 43/208 (21%) 2yo · C · b	763	9-13	81	—	—	49.3	4/1·5.13	10/3·4.33 Bet365 · -15% vs fair All 24 books ▾ Bet36510/3·4.33 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 BresBet3/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Star Sports11/4·3.75 Betfair Exchange3.45·3.45Matchbook3.1·3.10
2	Margot Mae J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 3 · combo 19/157 (12%) 2yo · F · ch	637	9-10	78	—	—	42.2	11/4·3.84	3.5·3.50 Matchbook · -9% vs fair All 25 books ▾ Matchbook3.5·3.50Paddy Power9/4·3.25 Unibet2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00William Hill2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Bet Victor2/1·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 BetMGM2/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 BresBet2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 SmarketsSBK15/8·2.88 Star Sports15/8·2.88 Betfair Exchange2.8·2.80
5	Maggie Walker J: Luke McAteer · T: David Marnane · draw 8 · combo 5/66 (8%) 2yo · F · b	16	9-01	69	—	—	40.8	11/1·11.53	10/1·11.00 Betfair Sportsbook · -5% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00Matchbook8.6·8.60Star Sports15/2·8.50 Bet3657/1·8.00Smarkets7.8·7.80SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange2.5·2.50
4	Razmataz J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 5 · combo 3/45 (7%) 2yo · G · chOnly ride	080	9-02	70	—	—	39.5	20/1·21.78	16/1·17.00 Bet Victor · -22% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00Smarkets14·14.00Matchbook5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
6	Old Joanie J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: James M Barrett · draw 1 2yo · F · btFT TOnly rideOnly runner	785	9-01	69	—	—	37.2	22/1·24.35	18/1·19.00 Bet Victor · -22% vs fair All 26 books ▾ Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 BresBet18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Paddy Power18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00Matchbook4.4·4.40Betfair Exchange4.3·4.30
8	Fine Line J: Chris Hayes · T: Denis Gerard Hogan · draw 2 · combo 4/22 (18%) 2yo · F · chOnly pairing	0007	8-09	63	—	—	36.7	13/2·7.69	7.8·7.80 Matchbook · +2% vs fair All 26 books ▾ Matchbook7.8·7.80Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 Bet36511/2·6.50 William Hill5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50
7	Elyatta J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade · draw 4 · combo 2/27 (7%) 2yo · C · btFT TOnly ride	089	9-00	68	—	—	33.9	20/1·21.78	18/1·19.00 Bet365 · -13% vs fair All 25 books ▾ Bet36518/1·19.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00Matchbook5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 24–27 bookmakers per horse with the 28% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap?

The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap is off at 17:12 on 21 August 2026 at Killarney (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:12 Killarney?

1m, Flat, 8 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:12 Killarney?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:12 Killarney?

The AI top-rated runner is Seaxburh (score 53.9, best price 5.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:12 Killarney?

The market favourite is Margot Mae at a best price of 3.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Seaxburh.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org