15:25 Thirsk

Caddick Construction EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 15 runners · £5,757 · Friday, 28 August 2026

This race has been abandoned.

Why the model rates this top

Baarberini

Daniel Muscutt · James Horton · 2yo

Top-rated of 15

score 61.9 · +11.7 clear of next best (50.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
22d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
72strong
Last 6: 3-2
Trainer20% weight
63small sample (n=8)
James Horton: 2/8 winners last 14d (25%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
50average
OR 75 — highest combined rating in the field

MarketBest price 2.58 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: No confirmed front-runner — likely a slow start, race may turn into a sprint.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(1)
5Baarberini
Hold-up / closers(5)
2Mr Minz 6Frontier Legend 12Special Operations 14Meccapulco 15Bearing In Time
Unknown(9)
1Astral Crown 3Mr Twig 4Quintillion 7River Glen 8Chaos Inn Court 9Lion's Den 10Persian Summer 11Poppular 13Elan Valley

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Thirsk 1m

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–5)

IV 0.82

Mid (6–10)

IV 1.04

High (11–15)

IV 1.16

Today: Elan Valley (draw 11) and Astral Crown (draw 14) get the bias; Mr Minz (draw 3) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 129 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	BaarberiniPick J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Horton · draw 7 2yo · C · b	32	9-04	75	—	—	61.9	15/8·2.87	2.58·2.58 Betfair Exchange · -10% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.58·2.58Matchbook2.58·2.58Smarkets2.54·2.54Spreadex11/8·2.38 SportingIndex11/8·2.38 Betano5/4·2.25 10 Bet5/4·2.25 Boyle Sports5/4·2.25 Star Sports5/4·2.25Betfair Sportsbook5/4·2.257Bet5/4·2.25 Quinn Bet5/4·2.25 William Hill5/4·2.25 Betfred5/4·2.25 Bet Victor5/4·2.25 BetTom5/4·2.25 Coral5/4·2.25 BetWright5/4·2.25 BresBet5/4·2.25 Ladbrokes5/4·2.25 Paddy Power5/4·2.25 Midnite5/4·2.25 BetMGM5/4·2.25 Bet3655/4·2.25 Dragon Bet5/4·2.25 LiveScore Bet5/4·2.25 Unibet5/4·2.25Virgin Bet5/4·2.25Hollywood Bets6/5·2.20
2	Mr Minz J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 3 2yo · G · b	33	9-07	74	—	—	50.2	13/2·7.65	7.6·7.60 Matchbook All 29 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Smarkets7.2·7.20Betfair Exchange7·7.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.007Bet5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Star Sports9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00
13	Elan Valley J: Clifford Lee · T: Adrian Nicholls · draw 11 2yo · F · b	—	8-13	—	—	—	31.5	40/1·43.36	60·60.00 Betfair Exchange · +38% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange60·60.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 7Bet35/1·36.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00Betano33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00BetTom33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.00Betfred28/1·29.00
1	Astral Crown J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 14 2yo · C · ch	53	9-07	—	—	—	24.0	9/2·5.74	5.6·5.60 Matchbook · -2% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook5.6·5.60Smarkets5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20 10 Bet7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.507Bet10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33BresBet10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33 Paddy Power10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33
14	Meccapulco J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 8 2yo · F · b	5	8-13	—	—	—	24.0	80/1·85.44	150·150.00 Betfair Exchange · +76% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange150·150.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Bet36566/1·67.00 Paddy Power66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 BresBet66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Smarkets55·55.00BetMGM50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00William Hill50/1·51.00
9	Lion's Den J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods · draw 1 2yo · G · b	—	9-01	—	—	—	23.0	50/1·52.28	50/1·51.00 7Bet · -2% vs fair All 27 books ▾ 7Bet50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Betano50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Betfair Exchange44·44.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00BetMGM40/1·41.00 BresBet40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 William Hill33/1·34.00
10	Persian Summer J: Tom Eaves · T: Michael Dods · draw 10 2yo · C · b	—	9-01	—	—	—	23.0	25/1·26.78	25·25.00 Betfair Exchange · -7% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange25·25.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 BresBet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Star Sports20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00
4	Quintillion J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 4 2yo · C · b	7	9-07	—	—	—	19.5	16/1·16.58	18.5·18.50 Betfair Exchange · +12% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50Smarkets16·16.00SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00William Hill11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00
3	Mr Twig J: Jason Hart · T: Michael Bell · draw 2 2yo · G · b	7	9-07	—	—	—	18.5	12/1·12.75	17·17.00 Matchbook · +33% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook17·17.00Betfair Exchange12·12.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Betano10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00Smarkets11·11.00BetTom9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00BresBet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Unibet17/2·9.50 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Midnite15/2·8.50 10 Bet15/2·8.50
7	River Glen J: Oisin Orr · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 5 2yo · G · b	—	9-04	—	—	—	18.5	33/1·33.16	34·34.00 Betfair Exchange · +3% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange34·34.00 BetWright25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Bet36525/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Star Sports25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Midnite25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00
11	Poppular J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby · draw 9 2yo · G · b	—	9-01	—	—	—	18.0	40/1·43.36	40·40.00 Betfair Exchange · -8% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange40·40.00 7Bet35/1·36.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00BetTom33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.00Betfred28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00
6	Frontier Legend J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Michael Dods · draw 15 2yo · C · b	0	9-04	—	—	—	16.5	100/1·103.29	120·120.00 Betfair Exchange · +16% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange120·120.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 BetTom80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00 10 Bet80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00Betfair Sportsbook80/1·81.00Paddy Power80/1·81.00 Betfred80/1·81.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00Hollywood Bets80/1·81.00Midnite80/1·81.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 Bet Victor80/1·81.00 BresBet80/1·81.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00Smarkets55·55.00
8	Chaos Inn Court J: Barry McHugh · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 6 2yo · C · b	—	9-01	—	—	—	15.0	66/1·65.04	60·60.00 Betfair Exchange · -8% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange60·60.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00William Hill50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00BetWright50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00BetMGM40/1·41.00
12	Special Operations J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 12 2yo · C · b	40	9-01	—	—	—	13.0	50/1·52.28	75·75.00 Betfair Exchange · +43% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange75·75.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00BetMGM40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Unibet40/1·41.00
15	Bearing In Time J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 13 2yo · F · b	0	8-10	—	—	—	13.0	50/1·52.28	230·230.00 Betfair Exchange · +340% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange230·230.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00Smarkets55·55.00Bet36550/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00BetTom40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook35/1·36.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–29 bookmakers per horse with the 27% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org