17:13 Thirsk

Applebridge Group Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

1m6f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 7 runners · £5,234 · Friday, 28 August 2026

This race has been abandoned.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Sax AppealDiffers from our pick

Sax Appeal has shown a progressive profile that the clock supports, and over fourteen furlongs on good ground at Thirsk there is every reason to think that upward curve can continue. Mick Collins heads the ratings by three pounds and must be respected as the chief threat, while Talismans Time and Sudu are capable of making this competitive, so this is not a straightforward call. The case for our selection rests on momentum and the raw times backing up what the bare form suggests, which can count for plenty when a horse is still finding improvement. Sax Appeal is the pick.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Sudu

Ray Dawson · Roger Varian · 4yo

Top-rated of 7

score 62.6 · +6.6 clear of next best (56.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
21d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
88very strong
Roger Varian: 6/17 winners last 14d (35%)
Ratings50% weight
55average
OR 83
Form20% weight
37below average
Last 6: 5-4-1-8-6

MarketBest price 4.30 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
2Sax Appeal 5Mick Collins
Prominent(3)
4Talismans Time 6Hamadhan 7Arrange
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(2)
1Pinatique 3Sudu

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	SuduPick J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 7 4yo · G · b	54186	10-00	83	—	—	62.6	7/2·4.64	4.3·4.30 Matchbook · -7% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook4.3·4.30Betfair Exchange4.2·4.20 BetMGM16/5·4.20 Star Sports3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00 7Bet3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00BetTom3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 William Hill3/1·4.00 BresBet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00Bet3653/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00Betano3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00
1	Pinatique J: Luke Morris · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt · draw 1 4yo · F · bay f.	69604	10-02	85	—	—	56.1	10/3·4.35	4.7·4.70 Betfair Exchange · +8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70Matchbook4.7·4.70BetMGM3/1·4.00 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 7Bet11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.75Paddy Power11/4·3.75 Betano11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 BresBet11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75 10 Bet11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75Virgin Bet11/4·3.75Hollywood Bets11/4·3.75BetTom11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75 Unibet11/4·3.75Smarkets3.65·3.65SmarketsSBK13/5·3.60 Bet3655/2·3.50
4	Talismans Time J: Cian Horgan(5) · T: Edward Bethell · draw 5 4yo · G · b	0P354	9-10	79	—	—	55.3	5/1·5.80	5.9·5.90 Smarkets · +2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Smarkets5.9·5.90Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70 10 Bet4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00BresBet4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Bet3654/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Unibet4/1·5.00 BetMGM7/2·4.50
2	Sax Appeal J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 2 6yo · G · bb	365333	10-01	84	—	—	53.4	16/1·17.40	18·18.00 Matchbook · +3% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange15·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.0010 Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36512/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Betfred12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Spreadex12/1·13.00Smarkets11·11.00SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00
6	Hamadhan J: Jason Hart · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 6 4yo · G · b	63753	9-06	75	—	—	49.6	11/1·11.60	9/1·10.00 BetTom · -14% vs fair All 27 books ▾ BetTom9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange10·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Hollywood Bets17/2·9.507Bet17/2·9.50 Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 BresBet8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00
5	Mick Collins J: David Nolan · T: Martin Todhunter · draw 4 5yo · G · b	3417	9-09	78	—	—	44.7	14/1·15.08	19·19.00 Betfair Exchange · +26% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange19·19.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Coral12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00BetWright12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Betfred11/1·12.00
7	Arrange J: Mark Winn · T: Martin Todhunter · draw 3 8yo · M · gr	06223	8-13	68	—	—	44.5	5/1·5.80	5.7·5.70 Betfair Exchange · -2% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00BresBet4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00Virgin Bet7/2·4.50LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–30 bookmakers per horse with the 16% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org