Who won the 17:00 Newcastle (AW) on 12 October 2026?
Carmel Valley (IRE) won the 17:00 Newcastle (AW) at SP 23.00. Ridden by Jason Hart. Trained by Katie Scott.
17:00 Newcastle (AW)
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap Stakes
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 11 runners · £3,978 · Monday, 12 October 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stCarmel Valley (IRE)Jason Hart·Katie Scott22/1·23.00SP
- 2ndBay Dream Believer (IRE)Saffie Osborne·Mark Walford·beaten 1.25 lengths50/1·51.00SP
- 3rdGoomah (IRE)M. P. Sheehy·John Butler·beaten 0.2 lengths9/2·5.50SP
Race time
1m 40.76s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Carmel Valley (IRE))
“Raced close to the pace - moved up smoothly to hit the front 2f out - stayed strong final furlong to win”
AI top-rated Maria da Silva (score 52.2) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way52.2/100 rating
Maria da Silva
4.60Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Maria da Silva
Maria da Silva heads our ratings on 79, four pounds clear of Goomah on 75, and that is a useful edge in a Class 5 field of eleven at Newcastle. Over eight furlongs on the all-weather she looks the one to beat on merit, and the four-pound gap to the chasing pack gives her a clear edge on our figures. Goomah is the chief danger, with Espanita (73) and Sailor's Return (71) also in the mix, but each has a bit to find on our figures. Maria da Silva is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Maria da Silva
P. J. McDonald · Andrew Balding · 3yo
Top-rated of 11
score 52.2 · +2.8 clear of next best (49.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong28d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight62averageLast 6: 6-1-1-4-4
- Ratings50% weight47below averageOR 70 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight33weakAndrew Balding: 10/76 winners last 14d (13%)
MarketBest price 4.60 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 0.94
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.06
High (9–11)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 632 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott · draw 1 3yo · F · br | 723780 | 59 | 38.1 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 2 | 9 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Mark Walford · draw 10 7yo · M · bh | 615339 | 57 | 34.4 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: M. P. Sheehy · T: John Butler · draw 4 3yo · F · ch | 63083 | 68 | 42.6 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 4 | 4 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 9 7yo · M · b | 233420 | 64 | 49.4 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 5 | 1 | J: P. J. McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · draw 11 3yo · F · b | 61144 | 70 | 52.2 | 5/2F·3.50 SP |
| 6 | 5 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 7 3yo · F · bt | 604152 | 66 | 46.2 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 7 | 2 | J: Oliver Stammers · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 2 3yo · F · grh | 163122 | 69 | 49.0 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Cian Horgan(5) · T: Edward Bethell · draw 6 3yo · F · b | 621135 | 65 | 48.1 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 9 | 6 | J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Joey Ramsden · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 533298 | 65 | 43.6 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 10 | 11 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Mark Walford · draw 8 5yo · M · bp | 105192 | 53 | 35.0 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 11 | 8 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 5 3yo · F · b | 754270 | 61 | 34.5 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 17:00 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Maria da Silva) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 17:00 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Carmel Valley (IRE) (23.00), 2. Bay Dream Believer (IRE) (51.00), 3. Goomah (IRE) (5.50).
What was the winning time for the 17:00 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 40.76s.
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