Who won the 16:45 Newcastle (AW) on 2 September 2026?
Ellie's De Vega (GB) won the 16:45 Newcastle (AW) at SP 4.00. Ridden by Cam Hardie. Trained by Philip Kirby.
16:45 Newcastle (AW)
Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap Stakes
5f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 9 runners · £3,245 · Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stEllie's De Vega (GB)Cam Hardie·Philip Kirby3/1J·4.00SP
- 2ndLet's Go Hugo (IRE)AI top pick · 46.4Tom Kiely-Marshall·Ollie Pears·beaten 0.3 lengths3/1J·4.00SP
- 3rdLady Bouquet (GB)Joanna Mason·Philip Kirby·beaten 1.5 lengths12/1·13.00SP
Race time
59.34s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Ellie's De Vega (GB))
“Drifted left and clipped rivals early - travelled alone on the far flank - moved back across and closed 2f out - driven with a forward move approaching final furlong and stayed on strongly to get up close home”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.12.45 score
Heathers Feather
9.60Betfair Exchange
segment +7.8% · Flat · Standard · Class 6
Each-way46.4/100 rating
Let's Go Hugo
4.80Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Papa Don't Preach
Papa Don't Preach sits level on ratings with Pivotal Terms and Ellie's de Vega at the head of this nine-runner Class 6 sprint on Newcastle's all-weather, but a progressive profile and strong clock performances backing the form make a compelling case for preferring our selection over those rivals. Pivotal Terms and Ellie's de Vega must be respected as genuine dangers, and Let's Go Hugo, only a pound adrift, is another who cannot be dismissed lightly over the five furlongs. On balance, however, the upward trajectory and time evidence point firmly in one direction, and Papa Don't Preach is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Let's Go Hugo
Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · Ollie Pears · 6yo
Top-rated of 9
score 46.4 · +2.7 clear of next best (43.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Form20% weight70strongLast 6: 0-8-3-4-1-1
- Freshness10% weight70strong8d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Ratings50% weight37below averageOR 55 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight35small sample (n=7)Ollie Pears: 1/7 winners last 14d (14%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketBest price 4.80 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 5f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 1.02
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.88
High (7–9)
IV 1.09
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Philip Kirby · draw 9 3yo · G · chb | 335226 | 49 | 43.7 | 3/1J·4.00 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Ollie Pears · draw 3 6yo · G · chp | 083411 | 55 | 46.4 | 3/1J·4.00 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Philip Kirby · draw 7 5yo · M · bp | 643491 | 45 | 42.5 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: Barry McHugh · T: W H Harrison · draw 2 3yo · G · ch | 492665 | 52 | 30.5 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | Heathers Featherv1.1 J: Jason Hart · T: Tracy Waggott · draw 1 3yo · G · chpFT P | 64687 | 53 | 31.5 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 6 | 2 | J: Oliver Stammers · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost · draw 5 7yo · G · bp | 539326 | 55 | 41.1 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 7 | 3 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 8 3yo · F · ch | 462504 | 53 | 41.4 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 8 | 9 | J: Dale Swift · T: Seb Spencer · draw 6 3yo · F · b | 70735 | 45 | 29.5 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: Mark Winn · T: Linda Perratt · draw 4 5yo · G · b | 04259 | 46 | 37.2 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Let's Go Hugo) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 16:45 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Ellie's De Vega (GB) (4.00), 2. Let's Go Hugo (IRE) (4.00), 3. Lady Bouquet (GB) (13.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:45 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 59.34s.
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