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RacingAlpha

17:54 Kempton (AW)

Unibet/ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Standard / Slow · 12 runners · £5,940 · Friday, 4 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 4th
  1. 1st
    Rogue Crusader (GB)
    Robert Havlin·Peter Chapple-Hyam
    5/4F·2.25
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Peaberry (GB)
    Sean Levey·Tom Ward·beaten .5 lengths
    15/2·8.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Celtic Storm (FR)
    Billy Loughnane·Richard Hughes·beaten 1.25 lengths
    3/1·4.00
    SP
Race time
1m 41.32s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Rogue Crusader (GB))

“Settled among the pack early - made progress from 2f out to move into second inside the final furlong - hit the front close home - stayed on to win”

AI top-rated Huwa Baree (score 36.5) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →
Each-way28.9/100 rating
Peaberry
12.00Spreadex
Place portion settles at 3.20 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Why the model rates this top

Huwa Baree

Callum Shepherd · Charlie Johnston · 2yo

Top-rated of 12
score 36.5 · +2.0 clear of next best (34.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    100very strong
    Last 6: 1
  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    22d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Trainer20% weight
    33weak
    Charlie Johnston: 5/39 winners last 14d (13%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    0weak
    no Racing Post ratings on file
MarketBest price 200.00 (Matchbook) · 7th in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Kempton (AW) 1m

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17).

Low (1–4)
IV 1.05
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.17
High (9–12)
IV 0.80

Today: Celtic Storm (draw 6) and Rogue Crusader (draw 5) get the bias; Shorien (draw 9) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 665 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
17
Rogue Crusader
J: Robert Havlin · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam · draw 5
2yo · C · b
——22.0
5/4F·2.25
SP
25
Peaberry
J: Sean Levey · T: Tom Ward · draw 10
2yo · C · b
52
—28.9
15/2·8.50
SP
33
Celtic Storm
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Richard Hughes · draw 6
2yo · C · bl
5
—23.0
3/1·4.00
SP
41
Huwa Baree
J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 2
2yo · C · b
1
—36.5
5/2·3.50
SP
52
Arlecchino's Moon
J: Jason Watson · T: Mark Usher · draw 4
2yo · C · gr
89
—25.0
400/1·401.00
SP
612
Lunar Blossom
J: Marco Ghiani · T: William Knight · draw 3
2yo · F · b
04
—34.5
40/1·41.00
SP
76
Phantom Knight
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Andrew Balding · draw 7
2yo · C · b
8
—18.5
50/1·51.00
SP
811
Tojoannie
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding · draw 11
2yo · F · bh
9
—19.2
80/1·81.00
SP
910
Rock Show
J: Harry Davies · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 12
2yo · C · b
——20.0
80/1·81.00
SP
104
Kiril
J: Mason Paetel(3) · T: Patrick Owens · draw 1
2yo · G · ch
8
—28.5
300/1·301.00
SP
119
Tarn Hows
J: Ebrahim Nader · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 8
2yo · G · ch
——15.0
50/1·51.00
SP
128
Shorien
J: William Cox · T: Archie Watson · draw 9
2yo · C · b
——30.0
33/1·34.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 17:54 Kempton (AW) on 4 September 2026?

Rogue Crusader (GB) won the 17:54 Kempton (AW) at SP 2.25. Ridden by Robert Havlin. Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 17:54 Kempton (AW)?

No — the AI top pick (Huwa Baree) finished 4.

What were the placings in the 17:54 Kempton (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Rogue Crusader (GB) (2.25), 2. Peaberry (GB) (8.50), 3. Celtic Storm (FR) (4.00).

What was the winning time for the 17:54 Kempton (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 41.32s.

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