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Christmas Parties At Newcastle Racecourse Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

7f · Flat · Class 3 · Standard · 8 runners · £7,020 · Saturday, 5 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 5th
  1. 1st
    St Helier (GB)
    Tom Eaves·Kevin Ryan
    9/2·5.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Crystal Dark (GB)
    Sam James·Edward Bethell·beaten 1.75 lengths
    4/1·5.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Geometry (GB)
    Robbie Downey·Roger Varian·beaten 3.25 lengths
    11/8F·2.38
    SP
Race time
1m 29.00s

Race time recorded.

In-running (St Helier (GB))

Set the pace from the start - pushed along a furlong out - kept finding more to the line

AI top-rated Mr Minz (score 51.2) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Each-way51.2/100 rating
Mr Minz
6.80Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Why the model rates this top

Mr Minz

Jack Nicholls(3) · Iain Jardine · 2yo

Top-rated of 8
score 51.2 · +25.7 clear of next best (25.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    54d since last run (fresh)
  • Form20% weight
    60average
    Last 6: 3-3
  • Ratings50% weight
    49below average
    OR 74 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    30weak
    Iain Jardine: 3/25 winners last 14d (12%)
MarketBest price 6.80 (Betfair Exchange) · 4th in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)
IV 0.94
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.06
High (7–8)
IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 632 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
17
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 2
2yo · C · b
5
20.5
9/2·5.50
SP
22
J: Sam James · T: Edward Bethell · draw 4
2yo · G · b
22.0
4/1·5.00
SP
34
J: Robbie Downey · T: Roger Varian · draw 1
2yo · C · b
25.5
11/8F·2.38
SP
43
2yo · C · b
5
14.5
33/1·34.00
SP
55
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 5
2yo · G · b
33
7451.2
7/2·4.50
SP
66
2yo · C · b
18.5
25/1·26.00
SP
78
2yo · C · b
19.0
22/1·23.00
SP
1
J: Jonny Peate · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 6
2yo · G · br
15.0

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 17:57 Newcastle (AW) on 5 September 2026?

St Helier (GB) won the 17:57 Newcastle (AW) at SP 5.50. Ridden by Tom Eaves. Trained by Kevin Ryan.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 17:57 Newcastle (AW)?

No — the AI top pick (Mr Minz) finished 5.

What were the placings in the 17:57 Newcastle (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. St Helier (GB) (5.50), 2. Crystal Dark (GB) (5.00), 3. Geometry (GB) (2.38).

What was the winning time for the 17:57 Newcastle (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 29.00s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org