13:42 Leicester

British EBF "Confined" Expotile Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (Div I)

7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 10 runners · £6,804 · Tuesday, 8 September 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Iwasjustsaying

No. 1 · score 33.0 · +1.5 clear of next best · best 2/1·3.00

Drawn 5, inside the favoured middle third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Talamon

9.8·9.80 Smarkets · +24% vs fair (consensus 7.93)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way31.0/100 rating

Astabuen

7.00SmarketsSBK

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Iwasjustsaying

Jack Mitchell · Charlie Johnston · 2yo

Top-rated of 10

score 33.0 · +1.5 clear of next best (31.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Form20% weight
100very strong
Last 6: 1
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
24d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
15weak
Charlie Johnston: 2/34 winners last 14d (6%)
Ratings50% weight
0weak
no Racing Post ratings on file

MarketBest price 3.00 (7Bet) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
3Astabuen 7Revoked
Unknown(8)
1Iwasjustsaying 2Arabian Blue 4Gilded Call 5Inkjet 6Meticulously 8Talamon 9United Authority 10Waqqad

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Leicester 7f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17).

Low (1–4)

IV 1.03

Mid (5–7)

IV 1.17

High (8–10)

IV 0.81

Today: Iwasjustsaying (draw 5) and Arabian Blue (draw 7) get the bias; Gilded Call (draw 9) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 148 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	IwasjustsayingPick J: Jack Mitchell · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5 · combo 2/11 (18%) 2yo · C · bDOnly runner	1	9-09	—	—	—	33.0	11/4·3.81	2/1·3.00 7Bet · -21% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ 7Bet2/1·3.00Hollywood Bets2/1·3.00Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00Matchbook2.94·2.94Betfair Exchange2.94·2.94Smarkets2.92·2.92Bet36515/8·2.88 BetTom15/8·2.88 BetMGM15/8·2.88 LiveScore Bet15/8·2.88 Coral15/8·2.88Virgin Bet15/8·2.88SportingIndex15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Midnite15/8·2.88 William Hill15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88 Betfred15/8·2.88 Boyle Sports15/8·2.88 Ladbrokes15/8·2.88 Quinn Bet15/8·2.88 Paddy Power15/8·2.88 SmarketsSBK9/5·2.80 Unibet7/4·2.75 Star Sports7/4·2.75 Betano7/4·2.75 Bet Victor7/4·2.75
4	Gilded Call J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan · draw 9 · combo 2/26 (8%) 2yo · G · bOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	31.5	40/1·44.95	40/1·41.00 Bet365 · -9% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36540/1·41.00Matchbook38·38.007Bet35/1·36.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00Smarkets30·30.00LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Betfair Exchange28·28.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00
3	Astabuen J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker · draw 3 · combo 13/50 (26%) 2yo · C · b	3	9-02	—	—	—	31.0	9/2·5.72	6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK · +22% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Smarkets7·7.00Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80Matchbook5.7·5.70BetWright7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Betfred10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Bet36510/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33BetMGM16/5·4.20 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00
5	Inkjet J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 2 · combo 24/153 (16%) 2yo · C · gr	—	9-02	—	—	—	27.5	10/1·11.24	10.5·10.50 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook10.5·10.50Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange10·10.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 BetTom15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Spreadex15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Bet Victor7/1·8.00
8	Talamon J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 1 · combo 24/123 (20%) 2yo · C · ch	3	9-02	—	—	—	24.5	7/1·7.93	9.8·9.80 Smarkets · +24% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets9.8·9.80Betfair Exchange9.6·9.60 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00Matchbook8.6·8.60BetWright11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Bet3655/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Bet Victor5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 Star Sports9/2·5.50
9	United Authority J: James Doyle · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 10 · combo 1/9 (11%) 2yo · C · chOnly ride	5	9-02	—	—	—	24.5	5/1·5.95	4.6·4.60 Betfair Exchange · -23% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.6·4.60Matchbook4.6·4.60BetTom7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50Smarkets4.5·4.50Bet3657/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33
10	Waqqad J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding · draw 8 · combo 5/41 (12%) 2yo · C · bOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	24.5	28/1·27.76	24·24.00 Matchbook · -14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook24·24.00Bet36522/1·23.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Unibet20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange20·20.00Smarkets19.5·19.50Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Star Sports18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00
6	Meticulously J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker · draw 4 · combo 4/42 (10%) 2yo · C · ch	—	9-02	—	—	—	24.0	14/1·15.87	24·24.00 Smarkets · +51% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets24·24.00Betfair Exchange21·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00Matchbook19·19.00Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00
2	Arabian Blue J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Horton · draw 7 · combo 2/12 (17%) 2yo · C · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	20.0	28/1·27.76	33/1·34.00 Bet365 · +23% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36533/1·34.00Matchbook24·24.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Midnite22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange21·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00Smarkets19.5·19.50SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00
7	Revoked J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox · draw 6 · combo 9/46 (20%) 2yo · C · b	95	9-02	—	—	—	15.9	40/1·44.95	35/1·36.00 7Bet · -20% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ 7Bet35/1·36.00Matchbook36·36.00BetMGM33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00Smarkets28·28.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange23·23.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–28 bookmakers per horse with the 32% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the British EBF "Confined" Expotile Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (Div I)?

The British EBF "Confined" Expotile Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (Div I) is off at 13:42 on 8 September 2026 at Leicester (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 13:42 Leicester?

7f, Class 3, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 13:42 Leicester?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 13:42 Leicester?

The AI top-rated runner is Iwasjustsaying (score 33.0, best price 3.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 13:42 Leicester?

The market favourite is Iwasjustsaying at a best price of 3.00.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org